Splunk was widely touted as one of the leading Big Data players when it was private, and still has that reputation now that it is public.
Trouble is, with buzz comes nosebleed valuations. Splunk is on track to generate around $185 million in sales this year, yet its $3.5 billion valuation should give you pause. That kind of price/sales multiple is hard to maintain as a company grows ever larger. Shares now trade for twice as high as the April 2012 offering price, and if you missed this meteoric rise, you may as well wait to see if Splunk stumbles in the next quarter or two, which would allow you to own this intriguing company at perhaps a far lower price.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
The company mentioned a very interesting fact on the earnings conference call. The fully diluted shares exceed 115M. This amount is considerably above the 95M used for the earnings report, with the company having negative earnings. That last number is also used for calculating the market cap, providing a very different view of reality.
The updated share count would value the company at over $3.9B, based on the after hours quotes. Naturally, the share count depends on whether the stock options eventually get executed, but with the stock surging to $34, that seems very likely.
seen this inasanity with MCP @70, won't last forever
The pumpathon has now turned into the dumpathon. No astute investor would risk holding this over the 3 day week end. Profits are being taken and now put into a short position. Easy short for the rest of the year.