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North American Energy Partners Inc. Message Board

  • chemaes44 chemaes44 Apr 4, 2011 10:36 AM Flag

    Met coal, oil, silver, rare earth Apr 4 week

    Hey guys and girls,

    Met coal finally popped today. CMK is up 4% and i expect another 2-3% over the next day. I see CLF is primed to move too-hasn't yet, but it looks ready to. May have something to do with the fact the second qtr contracts have been fixed at $330 for the quarter for met coal in some press releases today..technicals just say go for SOME met coal'ers. Some are already exhausted because they moved early.

    Oil is giving no signals. I didn't even bother to model or analyze the chart today.

    Silver looks like it wants to go to 38.97. Silver wheaton is behaving a lot better today, it didn't pull back giving me a chance to buy more but I think there'll be a good opp around noon to 1:30pm. If SLW can close above $43.20 or better today canadian, it is a 100% buy to me.

    Rare earther AVL up another 5% today, I took half off. I have it going to 9.69 canadian but I'm not confident on the numbers yet. News events= molycorp acquired some streams from a european company, more reuters stuff saying china has cut exports 30% and will cap increased production in country 5%.

    A good day!
    chemaes

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    • I think you're right about it getting ugly --if..

      A few commodities I'm watching seem to be moving sideways today since last night, not really revealing their hands. I guess obama's speach might be the climax point.

    • I asked about $106.60 because that was where it was when I asked. It didn't stay there long. LOL!

      Agreed, the 2 month old up trend is broken. If the bears push it through the 20-day, which is where it spent most of the day, I believe things get very ugly for the bulls.

    • Well, it looked like it was going to go to 105.55, it went to 105.48 and this was the low for the day.

      I guess you asked me about 106.60 because it became an upper range for the day. I think it says a lot of shorts are piling on since the bounce didn't go higher.

      Based on it reaching my target, it has broken a trend started since feb 2011. I'll watch it overnight, but based on the info available right now, I'd be shorting tomorrow again.

    • Oil isn't that big of a market. Dump enough contracts on the market at the right time and you could push the price way down in a hurry.

      GS has only been playing commodities with $20 million to $40 million and are widely viewed as controlling the markets. I bet I could get some dictators desperate to avoid unrest to let me short commodities with a lot more money than that.

    • With the type of money needed to push oil down to $80 quickly, we could live like kings (Arabian kings) and then buy Tiger her Island.

    • Yes, I do Don & will post when I receive notice.






      tiger

    • GS already told you. They plan on getting back in after it goes down $20/bbl.

      They are building more storage capacity in Cushing to store the glut of oil. Yeah, that makes sense. Or we could drive oil prices back down to levels where suppliers reduced production thus eliminating the need for more storage. Leaving it in the ground is free. Or does that make too much sense?

      Other than Libya there are no protests in OPEC countries with significant production. Just fears that protests in neighboring non-exporting countries will spark protests in OPEC countries, that will lead to supply disruptions. That's a little too third derivative for my taste.

      Why don't we just drive prices down because high prices might lead to protests in the US, which might cause Obama to pull his head out of his butt, and figure out that he can generate some serious revenue and votes by taking a couple of billion $ and shorting oil futures until the speculators cry. With enough money I could drop the price back to $80 in a few minutes and keep it there long enough that nobody in their right mind would ever speculate on oil prices going up because something might happen, that might cause something else to happen, that might then cause a supply disruption.

    • I read an interesting scenario regarding the cushman storage. The storage levels were close to maxing out which creates a squeeze on any speculative long purchases to have to take delivery. Even with the excess storage capacity to store oil in MJFFs lined ponds, it looks like it was too close for GS to take. I doubled up on SCO a day before the max. If GS is correct in their announced assessment of a $20 correction, then oil could be starting a new retreat to the lower 90s as MJFF predicts. If the Libia conflict resolves during that time, then lower levels could be possible. The only wild card is the other protests in OPEC countries swinging out of control. After this correction I will be going back to my bull stance on oil. It would be interesting to see when GS starts building long again. Tiger, do you have that type of visibility?

    • Wrong thread, it was in SCO Part II:

      "If the bears can push oil down enough to get USO through $43.75 today it could get very ugly for the bulls. I think you could see USO back down to around $38 (roughly $94/bbl). I personally think that is still way too high given the fundamentals, but a good start. It will be interesting to see how much interest there is in keeping it this high once QE II starts winding down."

      We of course have blown through $43.75 now, and even broken the 2 month up trendline. By this point the algo traders are probably in sell mode too. The GS move was the catalyst I was looking for to get the computers on board driving oil down instead of up.

    • I'm pretty sure you will find my prediction yesterday that oil would drop $20/bbl above or in one of the other threads. Just remember where you heard it first. Only difference being I don't think it will take a couple of months. I expect to see it by the end of next week.

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