I have a corrective price for oil to 107.93. So far this morning, the price has come as close as 108.18. I'm not sure if this is close enough to say oil moves up. If 107.93 price holds with oil bouncing up the numbers say $112.45.
If this price doesn't hold this would be the ideal price to start a low risk oil short.
Either way, I'm on it.
Looks like BofA Merrill Lynch is throwing in the towel after getting their carpet ripped from under them by GS. I guess they are using this little oil price up-tick to unload long positions. Will be interesting to see if the oil correction started by GS continues after the BofA withdrawal. There seems to be a news mantra going on for 150 a barrel oil.
The USO chart still looks very bearish to me. Nice descending triangle formed by the last 8 days trading, will be very interesting to see if that $42.15 level holds the third time down. We have also closed right on the 20 day two days in a row. A close below the 20-day or intraday breach of $42.15 will be a technical disaster, and I still think the algo traders are driving much of the action, so things could get pretty sporty especially with the low volume, short week.
Obama is an idiot and China is even dumber.
If he really wanted to lower oil prices he could have said any number of things that would have sent speculators fleeing for cover, so he is either stupid or likes prices right where they are or higher. Either way I doubt he gets a pass next election for it.
If China is uncomfortable loaning money to us, they should stop. Oops! That would cause the yuan to go through the roof and kill their exports, so maybe they should just shut the F up.
Obama is a moron. He sees no magic bullet to take down oil prices. I could come up with several in a matter of minutes.
The dollar is in pitiful shape so we can't expect much help from the inventories. Give it a glance and let me know if I'm being too kind by using the word "pitiful": http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/.DXY/tab/2
I really don't see any letup in sight until "maybe" after the QE ends in June. With the right set of geopolitical news we could possibly see 130/bbl without even breaking a sweat...and there is no dollar backstop that would slow the train down.
Dollar weakness was the tipping factor that led me to get into UCO yesterday, even though my entry point was not felicitously timed... and despite the fact that I have very little comfort level in being long OR short oil these days.
I feel pretty confident that the dollar will continue to decline. I wish it were different and things can change to make it different but that is the way I see it right now. We have all of this excess liquidity sloshing around right now and we have absolutely no plan on how to tighten it up without doing damage to the economy PLUS we have US companies that are busy little bees shifting money to developing economies so that they can profit from the bump they get when converting profits into deflated dollars.
I don't like the setup or odds right now. Just like the S&P commented last week...if we fail to make a reasonable budget deal for 2012 and beyond...then we have the trigger for some really ugly dollar contraction.
Somebody is because gasoline demand dropped again this week. I think that is 7 or 8 straight weeks now. Not sure what to make of the inventory #'s that keep going down as well. Price up, demand down (makes sense so far), and inventories down???? WTF???