I have a corrective price for oil to 107.93. So far this morning, the price has come as close as 108.18. I'm not sure if this is close enough to say oil moves up. If 107.93 price holds with oil bouncing up the numbers say $112.45.
If this price doesn't hold this would be the ideal price to start a low risk oil short.
Either way, I'm on it.
I would not buy oil here. It broke the 3 day old up trendline, and bounced down right where I would have expected it to if it were setting up a channel to trade down in. The bottom of the channel is now a ridiculous distance away ($41.25 USO), and the top is $43.25 USO.
Looks like BofA Merrill Lynch is throwing in the towel after getting their carpet ripped from under them by GS. I guess they are using this little oil price up-tick to unload long positions. Will be interesting to see if the oil correction started by GS continues after the BofA withdrawal. There seems to be a news mantra going on for 150 a barrel oil.
The USO chart still looks very bearish to me. Nice descending triangle formed by the last 8 days trading, will be very interesting to see if that $42.15 level holds the third time down. We have also closed right on the 20 day two days in a row. A close below the 20-day or intraday breach of $42.15 will be a technical disaster, and I still think the algo traders are driving much of the action, so things could get pretty sporty especially with the low volume, short week.
Obama is an idiot and China is even dumber.
If he really wanted to lower oil prices he could have said any number of things that would have sent speculators fleeing for cover, so he is either stupid or likes prices right where they are or higher. Either way I doubt he gets a pass next election for it.
If China is uncomfortable loaning money to us, they should stop. Oops! That would cause the yuan to go through the roof and kill their exports, so maybe they should just shut the F up.
I guess the part I left out, but should be clear, is that if the dollar index pops below that two year low, oil is going higher, not lower. And, it might be vicious if the dollar selling really feeds on itself with people running for the exits.
Dollar weakness was the tipping factor that led me to get into UCO yesterday, even though my entry point was not felicitously timed... and despite the fact that I have very little comfort level in being long OR short oil these days.
I'm surprised that nobody is howling about it. Nobody that I associate with is having discussions about curtailing their driving due to the price of gas. Nobody. I'm beginning to wonder if $5 would be the mark.
Somebody is because gasoline demand dropped again this week. I think that is 7 or 8 straight weeks now. Not sure what to make of the inventory #'s that keep going down as well. Price up, demand down (makes sense so far), and inventories down???? WTF???