I'll hazard a guess that oil goes up from here to $104.80 to $105.00. This is the area it should bounce up to given the bearish thrust that happened last week. If it get's above this price the situation is no longer bearish, however if it is repelled by this price $85.80 is a valid target.
I only feel comfortable given these price targets for 24 hr intervals. This means I wouldn't be holding anything overnight. I'll be taking positions off at night and looking to re-enter in the mornings.
As I mentioned maybe 1.5 weeks ago now, it is about the dollar forming that base and rising up out of it. This morning, than anything else, the dollar is the thing to watch for all commodities.
For silver although I indicated I'm buying with an eye to holding until the summer, I have to pay attention to the new information the chart provides hourly/daily. In looking at the chart, even though silver is bouncing up right now, this bounce likely taking it up to the mid $41 area, a renewed thrust down could occur if silver is not able to get past this mid $41 area.
I say this because I expected stronger bullish movement Friday and it was a bit tame. A way to play this is to take all your money to cash approaching this mid $41 area and sit back to see what happens at the price. If it gets through, re-apply the long position, if not, short it down or wait for a final bottoming to occur... e
my 2 cent junior analysis of oil trade
1.outside reveral week last week of april first week of may
2.other indicators stochastic, macd show overbought on 3month day chart
3.inventory build past 2 weeks
4.euro debt issues
5.qe2 ending, rate hike possible in the not to distant future
I sold out of my sco last week but thinking about getting back in. Maybe if oil hits 103 and doesn't break through. Thoughts anyone?
The crude trade is just about like a leaf blowing in the wind. It is a brutal trade right now. The dollar had a nice little run last week (look at the DXY monthly)...but I can't see much to convince me that it will continue. The Greece downgrade was just a mention in the news with no impact on the markets and the Treasury rates just keep getting lower and lower telling us that the inflation trade is still just a dream right now. Chem's 104/105 looks to be a pretty good call to me.
I don't like what I'm seeing from the miners SSRI specifically.
I know what I said about buying and keeping until the summer but that was based on what I saw several days ago and today that view is not looking too good.
I sold all my holdings. I made a good gain on silver but there is something unusual in how the miners are behaving. I don't trust now.
try this...the dollar index broke down yesterday but amazing has popped up today. I haven't read any news to understand why yet.
Still in cash. I guess miners yesterday were telegraphing today.