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North American Energy Partners Inc. Message Board

  • thedigistudio thedigistudio May 22, 2011 12:17 AM Flag

    Hey I am new to NOA, and new to the board...

    I seem to have stumbled across a board that is not ran by a bunch of nitwits who are short or long and attact any opion contrary to their own.

    The general feeling i get here is that we are in for a major correction.

    So should I be out of the market? I seem to always get caught flat footed and have lost about 5% in the past few weeks.

    I own mostly small cap o and g with some drillers and e&P,

    Thanks for your advice!

    Marc

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    • Hey Commo,

      I have been having a lot of trouble with my email and blackberry today. Answered this earlier but it didn't post.

      $47 could very well happen but because of how I trade, I can only give a target on what I'm currently seeing.

      I'd only go out on a limb and talk about $47 silver if I saw it reach the mid to high $39's. Until them baby steps and crossed fingers and lucky rabbits foot cause I did go pretty heavy silver on Friday.

      Don't stay absent so long...i know, I'm one to talk.

      Chem

    • There are some projections that silver will retest the $50 level.

    • Chemaes - Why not $47? You think we retest the highs that silver has made this year?

    • sorry, fat finger there, I see $36.74 silver.

    • Oil goes to between $101.21 and $101.56 near term. I bought long, double etf just a little while ago.

      I'm only 65% confident in oil because of what so many have pointed out on the board - the dollar and commo's aren't acting in a normal fashion.

      I've also been long Silver since friday. I see $46.74 silver coming.

      I was confused by all the NOA posts, I thought it was a dead stock...lol.

    • NOA has been performing well vs market conditions

      I will watch for sharks!

      Thanks for the warning!

    • I remember the last time Jeff described the traders from our old DXO board.

      I don't think I saw that poor guy again, lol....





      tiger

    • You are welcomed on this board. Bring your ideas and you will have the opportunity to have a knowledgeable bunch of folks consider your ideas and at least offer their points of view.

      "The general feeling i get here is that we are in for a major correction."
      The market has been down for 3 weeks now and I've been putting a little thought in on this. Doug Kass is calling for a deeper pullback but his reasons have more to do with where the market has come from over the course of the last year plus there is a long line of "go away in May" folks out there (for good reason).

      The main worries that are driving my opinions are the concerns that Greece/etc. will default on of their debt (and I think that they will eventually - the Greek 10-year is 15% now) plus I've seen companies that are increasingly beginning to adjust their earning forecasts downward (they have been lean mean earning machines up to now).

      On the other hand, I don't want to be out of the market as long as I see .63% money market returns, the 1-year CD at .98%, the 5-year Treasury going for 1.8%, 5+-year commercials bonds paying 3%, etc. When the fixed income market is dead like this, there is tremendous pressures for individuals and institutions to put their money in the stock market in the search for yields of any kind. The counter argument here is that a bunch of folks think that the end of QEII will move the needle in the fixed markets, however, the QE ends in June and I'm looking at a 10-year rate right now that has gone DOWN to 3.15% yield so I have to be skeptical on that argument. We have discussed this extensively on the board and my opinion is that we might not call it QEIII but what we are going to get is sure going to act and taste like QEIII for a long time to come.

      For what little it is worth, here is how I'm playing it right now. I'm not running for the hills but I am getting a little defensive. I'm increasing my cash position, taking profits on what I consider to be the more risky stocks I own, and I'm mostly keeping the stocks that I own where I know that I would buy more in the event that they would go down and give me the opportunity to do so. I'm also refining my watch list and hoping that I get to buy a couple of them at a bargain price (I'm a fundamentalist stock picker). For instance, I put VAR on my list last week and I'm flat hoping that I get the opportunity to own it some day.

      • 2 Replies to dbbailey1
      • Thanks for the recommendation on market sentiment. I will try to turn 20% of my portfolio to cash, never seem to be right on which to stocks to keep and which to sell.

        I only bought a small amount of NOA, I dont know how this co cant make money with all the extra ng gas coming online and oil sands, in a stable region like canada.

        Do u find any value of NOA at this price. I see the resolved the debt issue in a very timely manner!

        I would love to d&D some of your recoomendations,

        Thanks, Marc

      • Thanks for the recommendation on market sentiment. I will try to turn 20% of my portfolio to cash, never seem to be right on which to stocks to keep and which to sell.

        I only bought a small amount of NOA, I dont know how this co cant make money with all the extra ng gas coming online and oil sands, in a stable region like canada.

        Do u find any value of NOA at this price. I see the resolved the debt issue in a very timely manner!

        I would love to d&D some of your recoomendations,

        Thanks, Marc

 
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