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North American Energy Partners Inc. Message Board

  • chemaes44 chemaes44 May 31, 2011 7:18 AM Flag

    Week of May 31st, 2011

    Last week I gave $102.96 oil as a target, today at 7 am it pressed up against 102.59..That's still a bit off, so I guess I expect it to go up at least another 20 cents this morning before pulling back to the liquidity levels the american market will provide at lower prices closer to Firday's close (but not quite getting to those prices.) I have $105.15 oil as my next target. This will be a hard target to get through (it seems). My memory ain't what it used to be but I think i remember hurricane type weather starting last year early june but shear conditions weren't perfect for those storms to make it into the gulf. With the crazy weather in southern US states I'm wondering if a pick up in Hurricane weather early june again is highly probably and thus putting a bid under oil prices in this $100 area. I know the hurricane folks said active season, but will it come early like last year. If someone with a better memory could correct me I'd appreciate it.

    Yesterday, canadian markets were open and based on the prices I had available, silver said get back in so, I did. maybe holding 80% of what I'd held a few days earlier. I seriously am starting to think that gold is preparing to go to some next level. It is obviously pulling silver along. At some points gold takes a time out and silver leads for a bit but gold eventually takes the lead again. Why is this important? it suggest that this silver rise isn't as strong by any stretch as the last 9 month run. Yesterday's math says $42.06 silver from the current $38.54.

    Last week, it seemed to me the dollar had started to break down again. Yesterday's action further confirmed that. Since the point where i indicated the dollar was bouncing up at around 73.00, it's climbed to 76.5. However it has now fallen more than 50% of that rise which is not very promising for dollar bulls. If the dollar makes it back to 73.00, and down through it, commodities are a sure fire bet.

    I'm buying oil and silver on pullbacks. I'll be watching the 20 yr bonds too with TLT. I think it's going to breakout. it looks like it wants to go 100 from the current 96. 4% is 4% I ain't going to laugh at it since the market has chopped 4 or 5 months sidways with no returns. Fund managers are significantly underperforming right now. I think the typically calm summers are not going to be so calm because of all the underperforming managers.

    Good trading

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    • At one time OPEC made some noise about $75, but did nothing. This time conditions are evolving where at the current price level, thousands of wells are not economically feasible in TX using the same technique to extract NG. Also there is some push to set up infrastructure for charging stations in Oregon. The $90 number is where the Saudis feel that type of development may be slowed. The reluctance for oil to go down looks to be more focused on the declining dollar and also Yemen getting closer to a civil war state. OPEC may stand pat again since they do not have much spare capacity to waste.

    • Don't forget OPEC next week. They are under a lot of pressure to do something. Doesn't mean they will, but it doesn't appear to be in their interests to sit on their hands much longer either. Saudis talking about $90/bbl as desirable doesn't make me want to buy in front of the meeting either. The market seems to be counting on OPEC to do nothing, may be a bad bet at this point.

    • I think everything is still trying to find direction. On oil I mentioned, at some point, if oil can gain momentum under 99.12 by say 30 cents then its a short.

      Well on the hourly chart, oil broke under 99.12, and closed precisely at 30 cents below for that hour (ending 9 am) at 98.82. It then rocketed up in the next several hours, now at 100.27.

      I don't think oil is a short until that 99.12 is taken out to the downside and you can see how close it came on the tight rope if my numbers, posted well in advance of today's action, are to be believed.

      I think silver may have bottomed too. closing above 35.91 but even better at 36.23 or higher is bullish for silver short term.

      I don't think I'll hold anything over the weekend. I'll re-evaluate and enter on monday. Some mid east tension might be priced into oil going into the weekend with that assasination attempt.

      I might take next week off, not sure yet. If it's nice weather I will.

      Good weekend to ya

    • Probably so, but I don't understand the $ weakness either. At least relative to other fiat currencies, and especially the euro. I guess everybody is back to betting on QE III.

    • Dollar down, Euro up, Oil up, stocks up off morning lows. Looks like the weak dollar is keeping a floor under any sell off.

    • Too many stupid people in the oil trade right now. They all want to catch a falling piano. I can't believe anybody is buying these dips (stocks or commodities). The news we have gotten has been bad, and what is coming is worse. One day they will decide that it all matters, and they always seem to all figure it out simultaneously.

    • "wow, you guys are very day-to-day players"...The majority here aren't, I'm one of the few that is.

      Oil is basically chopping in different directions every other day.

      Oil has come back to that 99.12 position I mentioned yesterday. Now, if it can sustain momentum below that price by say 30 cents or so, I become about 70% confident $85 oil is the next stop.

      Don't think oil will play its hand until the jobs report is out

    • Wow, you guys are very day to day players. I am a novice investor and bought NOA on the pull back a few weeks ago, thought i was doing ok until i got torpedoed by earnings today and tomorrow. Small investment but i will hold.

      I followed the advice here a few weeks ago and sold about 20% of portfolio, of course the market was up the next 3 sessions but i am feeling better now.

      I kept all my oily stocks though, I am waiting for the next pull back in oil and then will add to existing positions.

      Not very exciting but believe oil is not going to fall below 95


    • The Saudis are now calling on $90 oil as the sweet spot they would like to see. There is some speculation that the market needs another 500K to a million barrels/day more supply for balance. The market is still trying to be bullish even though there are signs that demand is waning. I don't have any long at this time. Just a small short position that I will add to if there is a pop up. Once oil gets below $95 then one needs to consider long again.

    • Not sure you can play it that way either. If I was playing it that way I would have gone long at about 11:30 a.m., but then would have sold and gone short at about 1:30 p.m. ET. I'd have been right the first time, and then given most of it back the second trade, and I sure as heck wouldn't want to play it overnight that way especially tonight. Who knows what will happen tomorrow morning. It could gap up or down big or open flat. Ironically, the stochastics are showing it to be nearly overbought despite going mostly sideways the last 3 weeks. Doesn't make me want to go long that's for sure.

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