The economic reports are unrelentingly bad right now from just about everywhere. Oil bounced off the 200-day average 3 times in the last 2 weeks, but I'm betting it can't hold 4 times, and that if we break through it by much more than $.50/bbl you will see the rest of the people who shouldn't be in the trade flushed out. Position: 100% short oil with SCO.
The economy's of the world are out of the fast lane. And are slowing down, heading towards neutral IMO! I don't see a double dip but I also don't see pressure for an upside bias in raw materials, housing,demand for capital,or luxury goods, and second homes! Many folks are just trying to get by. And that's what I see for most markets in general. Slow steady growth for the next decade! Demand will pick up but most will have no choice and buy only what they can afford. That's how it should be IMO!