It looks like (at 6:47 am), oil took off the steel-toe boots:) The challenge is after such a fall, there is a bounce that can occur and if it's limited to 101.20 upside and no more, then I'll be firmly on the side of an oil short. If it makes it above that by 20-30 cents I think longs have it.
bought some tlt yesterday but not much. I know I mentioned 4% but my gut is saying that I might be able to get larger returns if the markets gives me its tell about a big downside or upside in something else rather than parking it in tlt. My risk appetite is greater at the beginning of the month.
On silver, it is in critical territory. Breaching 35.91 downside says bear to me. More concerning, and one days action doesn't a trend make, silver and gold demonstrated decoupling action. The last time I saw that (i think) was in 2008 when gold went sideways to a bit higher while silver fell off the cliff for another 20-30% downside. I'm not saying it will happen. I'm just collecting the evidence.
It will be interesting to see if the market follows-through on yesterday.