MJ, are you watching the 200 DMA on USO or the 200 DMA on the actual spot price of oil? Is there even much of a difference in where the line is drawn at this point? I think I saw the 200 DMA line on USO drawn at 38.01 as of last Friday. It's really close to that point now. I'd say the odds are decent that it breaks below there this week, maybe even today if there's not that typical buying spree before the Nymex close.
I just watch USO, since I can get real time tick by tick on my screen. On my USO chart the 200-day is about $38.20. We smashed through it, bounced back to the underside, and have been stuck here for 45 minutes. That is pretty much what it should have done, and next I'm looking for it to plunge, but we are into the last 30 minutes before the NYMEX close, so who knows. There always seems to be some idiot(s) that want to buy it into the close, so they can watch it gap down on them the next morning. I'm guessing they are the same ones that have to pee on a hot wire.
The time to go long on anything in the last two years is when expectations are lowered. Dow's up 150 on retail sales news that showed a decline, but it was better than expected. As much as I'd like to jump into SCO or DTO, I just cannot justify it anymore. I've stayed away from oil for over a year now and that trend will likely continue.
I think oil is in a bear move right now, and part of that move allows for it to rise back to $99.46.
I've set up short positions at this level and if oil moves above this price by even 15 cents, I close it down.
I took last week off and yesterday everything was stagnant so 100% cash.
Today, I wait for $99.46 oil.
Also...take a look at the 3-month chart on UUP. I think that we are in for a dollar rally...especially since we are "maybe" headed toward an end of QE for awhile.
If I were to be pinned down, I think that the crude price is in an upward bias now for the next 6 months or so...especially in light of the China retail data that came out today. I plan to pile in heavy on the long side when we get meaningful pullbacks.
I could see that, but not much more today. That would basically put it right on the bottom of the channel. Getting late in the day with the NYMEX close only 2 hours away, so it will require something we haven't seen in a long time, selling into the close.
The one thing that politicians are good at is kicking the can down the road. I think the EU will kick that can again to give the Greeks time to wrestle with their own murky future. It will only cost them 17B. There will be a reckoning it is just a matter of when. That could the beginning of the next dip and maybe depression. The Greeks just need to accept that they will have to retire at 62 (instead of 55) like most of the rest of us. I will be lucky if I could retire at 65.
I was so perplexed by oil yesterday it caused me a sleepless night. This is why I'm up at 5am.
I went out on a real limb and said oil should reach 93.3 yesterday and when it didn't I was a bit stunned. I was off by 3 hours..lol..Sure enough, it went past it by a dollar and change.
Problem is I was so frustrated by the action, I got out. This is the challenge with trading, getting the call right, sticking with the call, then applying it to get the trade right.
Got the call right, didn't stick with it, therefore didn't achieve maximum possible gains. this hurts in this environment of hard to come by gains. I might not have gotten the call right, because at this moment 93.3 or so isn't seeming like a important resistance or support on the chart.
I'm looking for a tradable bounce somewhere to get short again.
I have to say I'm pretty impressed so far by how well gold and silver are holding up. Yes they have fallen, by relatively speaking they are holding their own.
The market in general feels like there is going to be a massive, massive sell down. A capitulation move or not? I'm still 100% cash.
Chem: June is traditionally a bad month for me too. I could write tons of articles on the stupid things I've done with June investments over the years.
I'm long crude at 98 and short crude at 109.
I'll pull out my lucky rabbits foot for good measure, hopefully that will knockout any jinx.
Oil is tricky this morning. As with yesterday, I have a possible bounce up to 96.95. I have trouble believing it can get there.
I took partial profits yesterday after nearly 8.5% gain in 2x etf. want to reapply positions in the 96.20 to 96.53 zone -if oil can get there.
Still maintain that the dollar has to get past 77.13 for a further moves in oil down. Dollar currently at 76.24. This isn't far to go.
It's down near the bottom of the channel I've got drawn which limits the downside in my opinion. If the situation in Greece deteriorates over the weekend those lines will mean nothing, but in the meantime I don't anticipate much progress, and we might see a bounce to the top of the channel, especially if the euro rallies.
I don't think there is any doubt that they kick the can down the road, but looking at the way the markets are acting I'm not sure it matters whether they do or not. At this point there seems to be no doubt whatsoever that Greece will default at some point, and when that happens it is time to price it in, and it kind of looks like that is what the market plans to do. Of course, by kicking the can down the road, the market is left to guess at how bad it will be when it finally happens. Markets seldom guess optimistically, so this could wind up being much worse than if they just let Greece default now. Mr Market does not treat uncertainty kindly.