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North American Energy Partners Inc. Message Board

  • chemaes44 chemaes44 Jun 15, 2011 9:12 AM Flag

    Worst case scenario for silver

    I have no position thus no motive.

    High CPI should support PM's. however, I'll throw the numbers out there because.. what has been happening the last few years follows this pattern: Markets sell off, margin calls occur, people go to one of the places they've made big gains to get money (gold and silver) and they fall in sympathy.

    $10-$12 lower silver from $35.23.

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    • Hey there,

      Lance, very observant! Silver did behave very differently than oil today. At times, silver was rising with the dollar. As long as silver remains above 35.09 i can see a bull case remaining alive. Silver and copper were divergent in behavior today from oil and the dollar. We'll have to keep our eyes on this. silver seems limited 36.45 upside.

      Commo, I can see your numbers playing out. My analysis builds on itself day-to-day. For now, we wait patiently for the next day's data.

    • Hey guys! I was thinking 80's oil as well before investors look at it as a positive for growth in the economy. I believe the dollar movement the last 24 hours was more related to the Greece situation and people selling euros and buying other currencies with the big winner being the beaten down US$. 77 on the dollar index is nothing. I think we get over 80 again like the 1st time this came up with the euro possibly breaching 1.30 again. If so then I expect S&P in the 1000 territory, oil in 80's, silver $25 which a little higher than Chemaes thinks, but gold will stay above 1400. Gold may initially take a bit bigger hit as Chemaes points out that people will get margin calls ect and be forced to raise funds which will come from GOld/Silver/oil ect., but I think Gold will be the last to fall and the fall the least amount.

    • Guys,and Gals!

      Historically the ratio has been 64 to 1
      silver to gold! With gold @ $1526. and
      silver @35.41 Silver should be 23.84 or
      gold should be $2266. I say silver 23.84
      JMO!

      Thoughts?

      Fine evening all!

      John

    • chemaes:

      I'm all in favor of people taking a week off, but on the other hand, it's good to have you back. You bring up some very valid points. Not to mention that your numbers on oil were within pennies of yesterday's high and this morning's low.

      Watching oil and silver closely...

      • 2 Replies to lancekoliver
      • This is the first time i have been very concerned with all the world markets last Thursday i sold all my mutual funds in my 401K
        accounts! 6 weeks before i was up around 11% for the year. When i sold i was up around 5.8% for the year. $4 gas has really slowed what little momentum the economy had. $1.6 Trillion
        budget deficits each and every year can not be sustained! Buy end of year $80 oil will give all Americans a pay raise. if we stay around $100. the economy will falter more. IMO! So my take Higher oil prices = lower
        stock and commodity prices and Lower oil
        will lift most boats!

        Have a cool and wet afternoon all!
        From Ohio

        John

      • Thanks for your kind words lance.

        I am firmly short oil.

        Oil targets $93.02 on breach of 96.33.

 
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