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North American Energy Partners Inc. Message Board

  • hcodnal hcodnal Jun 20, 2011 9:30 AM Flag

    oil trade week of 6/20

    looks like an MJ reversal is setting up on the 3 month chart. Anyone think we get down to the 87.60 area?

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    • CHEM

      Thanks for your in-depth response. I appreciate
      you taking the time to share, your ideas and the
      way you approach each trade. I know $4. petrol
      won't fuel the economy. $2.75 is tolerable.
      I'm a value investor and currently on the sidelines. This is a great market to trade very
      volatile. This is the first time in 40 years of
      trading,investing,speculating That those dark
      clouds hanging over the economy, just look to
      be getting darker each day!

      Thanks again!

      Have a good afternoon all

      john

    • Reds,

      On May 31, 2011 with 4,117 hedge fund products reporting, the HFN Hedge Fund Aggregate Index was +1.42% in April and +2.79% YTD 2011 while the S&P 500 Total Return Index (S&P) was +2.96% during the month and +9.06% YTD.

      Huh? Did he say hedge fund managers returned 2.79% for the year ending April whereas if you just bought and held the S&P you would have made 9% up to April? Yes he did. What do you think their performance is now that the DOW has lost 1000 points? It's going to be bad.

      Another report I read said that less than 1.5% of all fund managers performed in the top 25% of all managers for three consecutive years, with one of those managers having a loss of -25% in 2011 which results in him still being in the top 25% of all managers this year.Wow! This is what they do for a living and only 1.5% of them can get into the top 25% of the class for 3 consecutive years?

      I'll say this, my returns were very good for the last 3 years and I have absolutely no clue which way the market is going from one week to the next. No one does.

      There is just too much data to consider and the market changes direction on a dime of the data (from beige book, employment numbers, ADP, manufacturing index, oil, retail sales, CPI, PPI, treasury auctions, housing, fed meetings etc)x 3 to include china and europe. Then throw in misbehaving IMF chief's and bernanke burping.

      my opinion is that anyone, ANYONE, who gives you an indication of where an investment is going prognosticating more than 4 to 6 days out is simply blowing smoke up your you know what. The data above proves it. What's sick is they feel no shame going on TV and stating direction when they have no clue. Dennis Gartman really gets my goat, check out his fund in canada HAG to see how the commodity king is doing:( down 7.5% . Don't get me wrong I have losses just like anyone else but the point is I say I don't know what the market is going to do and these guys say they do, making you believe you should be doing better. I'll go out on a limb giving a 4 or 5 days forecast but mainly stick to day to day.

      What to do? I'd say spend at least 20 mins a day looking at your investments and whether you are on the right side of the trendline. On Thursday night rebalance, going to cash if necessary and replacing bets Monday morning.

      Holding for 4 days consecutively, between Monday to Thursday would be the best approach to me. Monitor the dollar. If it is in a trend down, go long the mrkt and commodities. If it is in a trend up go short the mrkt and commodities. if it is chopping sidways stay in cash.

      On the simplest level, this is how I trade. Of course there are details of price points that make the discussion infinitely more complex, but let's keep it simple.

      Not trading today, got some errands
      chemaes

    • CHEM

      I'm trying to get a feel for the charts!
      30 looong! Days ago, they said (the charts)
      100 buck silver, 2000 greenback gold, Oil 140+
      and now DOW down 1000+ and a muffler on the metals and OIL! I guess I will answer my own
      question, Trade only day to day?

      Thanks for your input!

      John

    • my stop on the long is a dime below the equivalent of 94.91 oil.

      if it's hit I'm out for the day (my own two stop rules)and I guess I won't be able to afford lunch tomorrow:)

    • I won't be able to trade tomorrow so today I'm trying to make lunch money.

      When 94.91 gave way to the bullish side, I got stopped out.

      I believe so strongly that this is the line in the sand, I immediately took a long position believing once the resistance of 94.91 was breached it became support.

      We'll see, it's a day trade

    • looks like 94.91 held. I took a renewed short position there and will average in.

    • $94.91 wti remains line in the sand. It took a whopping 40 some days to define that line. And, with such strong definition that line won't easily be taken out. As long the price remains under, bear is intact.

      Oil projects somewhere in the $85 area .

      I also have a sense another 1000 points can come off the TSX and therefore by correlation another 1000 points off the DOW. This is for beginners.

      I haven't analyzed the DOW so I'm just throwing those numbers out there but i have looked at the tsx (the biggest commodities index in the world to me, yes biased- it is the canadian dow) and if it only has maybe 300 points more to the upside on a bounce, then I'm thinking as that commodity index goes, so goes oil. TSX looks downward.

      Too much headline news right now to take any meaningful position, and definately not overnight for me. Money is harder to make right now because shorting seems to be the only game in town.

      still 100% cash. Yesterday greek vote caused non existent volume on the indices with higher closes on short covering IMHO. Today, same type of stuff with sideways chop until Fed conference is over.

      Remember a good day is not only a day where you make money, but it's a day where you don't lose (stay in cash) either:)

      Good trading
      chemaes

    • Oil Man!

      I take my cap off to you. You have conviction!
      lower oil seems inevitable to me. Not sure if the
      market is propping the price up, or the (s) word (Speculators) have there dirty hands Involved Lol! JMO oil should be closer to 75-83 I hope I'm correct, because with gas at the pump 2.75
      this slow economy could turn into a (fuel) injected Winner!

      Good evening all!

      John

    • The near unanimity of the analysts and talking heads predicting $85 oil makes me think we won't get there.

    • First we need to win this battle at the 200 day on the WTI chart that has been waged all morning. GS/MS managed to push it back over in the PM, but then it looks like they ran out of ammo, and nobody is rushing to help them. If we can push it through, I think we see another $5 disappear from the price pretty quick.

 
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