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  • lancekoliver lancekoliver Jun 23, 2011 10:49 AM Flag

    MJ, Congrats

    That was my thinking as stated in the debrief thread, only I thought 60 million barrels was 16 hours' of usage. Spread over a month, that hardly seems to justify a 5% drop in oil prices. I realize there's more in play than that, of course, but it still seems like an overreaction to me. Of course the other side of the argument, which MJ probably would make, is that oil never should have been 5% higher anyway.

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    • Thanks Lance, we seemed to have typed messages around the same time this morning, you noticing DB getting out of long oil position just in time, which makes me smile.

      What are you trade ideas lately?
      I am thinking building a TBT position while it is down.

    • Oil was way down before the IEA announcement because of a number of factors that combined equal a risk off trade. When we flip to risk off, oil is usually one of the hardest hit, and with this big of a move coupled with the solid break of the 200-day the rush to the exits can get pretty ugly. Reference 5/5 if you don't believe me. When the specs start heading for the exits it's best not to be the last one to the door. Ironically, even with this big move oil is still well within the channel it has been trading down in for more than 2 weeks. It hit the top of the channel yesterday, and still has plenty of room to go before it gets to the bottom of the channel. If it were to spike through the bottom significantly (signaling a capitulatory move) I would close my short position and go long, but as long as it stays in here I'm pretty comfortable going along for the ride. No sense trying to catch a falling piano.

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