On august 4th I posted on the SLW board silver would first target $38.65. On a closing basis on August 4th it never went below $38.63. however, on an intraday swing it went to as low as $38.50.
The next day it went down past $38.00 and I stated it needed to remain above $38.18 for the bulls to gain control. It got above $38.18 on a closing basis. If $38.00 gives way it will fall $1.50 at least. I have very decent positions in silver and I hedged the position, neutralizing it by 80% rather than close my long or exposing myself headed into the weekend. SIlver needs to take out $38.95 to the upside for the bulls to gain control. How I'll work the hedge is: if there is more downside, i will take the short side of the trade all the way down and close that side out, take all the profits and enter long again reducing my average cost for the ride back up. I like to think I'm nimble that way.
The technical damage on the silver chart suggests if $38.00 is breached downside, then $36.14 is the primary target unless bulls can wrestle control back from the bears above the target given in the last paragraph. be cautioned that in 2008, this was the last time I can remember seeing such a divergence of this magnitude between gold and silver price falls. Then, silver continued falling some 30-40% while gold did relatively ok holding up. I am just having a lot of difficulty believing that with Indian Diwali and Chinese harvest beginning in about a month, any fall in PM's will have momentum. I believe PM's should start rallying next week or the week after. The contrarian view scares me and I'm aware of it, the market will try to hurt the greatest number of people and a lot of people believe what I believe.
In closing: The star nazi (not to be confused with the soup nazi from seinfeld) is back tracking me on the SLW board. It's the same clown pretending he was a former wall street banker who never indicated what he was doing before executing a trade but always was perfect with each trade in his following posts. As you read this now, you clown, after following me to this completely different board DXO, know this, you can't compete with me. I know imitation is the greatest form of flattery, but come'on, just leave me alone now.
I haven't said anything about this star rating thing you do for the last year or the constant complaints you've filed against me with the yahoo because, really, who cares and I have a life. obviously yahoo doesn't take you seriously because I still have the same handle. please just put me on ignore. You should talk to someone because it seems stalking me on the board has become a problem you can't control.
To my DXO brethen, sorry to bring the board down like this. You know I try to keep it respectful. But I know this clown has been reading me on this board and he knows there are a lot of intellectuals here so, this rebuke stings more here, with an audience of his piers than on the SLW board. Now will he bite his tongue or respond..lmao. what to do? think newsnut think.
Chem: I don't trade silver, however, I've watched every move you have made for some time now and I must say that you are correct on your calls a remarkable amount of the time. I can't figure out how you do it but I must give you a virtual tip of my hat. I enjoy reading your moves.
thanks yahles. I remember this call..I think that day, the silver price closed exactly at the 8 cent higher mark.
Thanks Db...I try.
my miss was in not playing oil at all. Massive gains were available. Oh well.
I should point out, gapping up to my price target and opening at it is one of the most bullish tells you can get with my modelling.
I see two scenario's potentially playing one has silver dancing at $39.43 tomorrow morning, the other has silver hitting $41.20 tonight before coming back to $39.88 by 8:30 tomorrow morning.
These are the two highest probability scenario's but others could play out.
I gave an update after this on the SLW board. I gave a $39.17 target.
So far silver has hit $39.14.
If silver can move just 8 cents higher and clock $39.22 before end of day, next week looks very bullish. It already looks bullish, but it would look more bullish just 8 cents higher that the $39.14 high for the day.
I definitely got a little dizzy today watching the small SLW and AGQ positions I have, but I'm still holding. I've lost track of how many times today and Friday the price of silver whooshed down right to the mid 38s level you indicated last week and then bounced upward, sometimes weakly, sometimes more strongly. Each time, I was watching and wondering if this time the floor would give away, but not so far. I only still have my position because I still think the odds favor silver catching back up with gold than gold coming back down to silver, but we'll see. As always, your commentaries appreciated.
testing waters is sound as opposed to going all in.
Even now as gold has risen to $1714.. silver is still having some trouble pushing above resistance points.
However, miners beginning to lead the silver price can be considered a bullish development.
we'll see. further analysis reveals that $40.33 is a critical price and that's where silver was stopped last night
slw options are getting bid up too