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North American Energy Partners Inc. Message Board

  • chemaes44 chemaes44 Aug 6, 2011 12:19 PM Flag

    Silver and SLW

    On silver:

    On august 4th I posted on the SLW board silver would first target $38.65. On a closing basis on August 4th it never went below $38.63. however, on an intraday swing it went to as low as $38.50.

    The next day it went down past $38.00 and I stated it needed to remain above $38.18 for the bulls to gain control. It got above $38.18 on a closing basis. If $38.00 gives way it will fall $1.50 at least. I have very decent positions in silver and I hedged the position, neutralizing it by 80% rather than close my long or exposing myself headed into the weekend. SIlver needs to take out $38.95 to the upside for the bulls to gain control. How I'll work the hedge is: if there is more downside, i will take the short side of the trade all the way down and close that side out, take all the profits and enter long again reducing my average cost for the ride back up. I like to think I'm nimble that way.

    The technical damage on the silver chart suggests if $38.00 is breached downside, then $36.14 is the primary target unless bulls can wrestle control back from the bears above the target given in the last paragraph. be cautioned that in 2008, this was the last time I can remember seeing such a divergence of this magnitude between gold and silver price falls. Then, silver continued falling some 30-40% while gold did relatively ok holding up. I am just having a lot of difficulty believing that with Indian Diwali and Chinese harvest beginning in about a month, any fall in PM's will have momentum. I believe PM's should start rallying next week or the week after. The contrarian view scares me and I'm aware of it, the market will try to hurt the greatest number of people and a lot of people believe what I believe.


    In closing: The star nazi (not to be confused with the soup nazi from seinfeld) is back tracking me on the SLW board. It's the same clown pretending he was a former wall street banker who never indicated what he was doing before executing a trade but always was perfect with each trade in his following posts. As you read this now, you clown, after following me to this completely different board DXO, know this, you can't compete with me. I know imitation is the greatest form of flattery, but come'on, just leave me alone now.

    I haven't said anything about this star rating thing you do for the last year or the constant complaints you've filed against me with the yahoo because, really, who cares and I have a life. obviously yahoo doesn't take you seriously because I still have the same handle. please just put me on ignore. You should talk to someone because it seems stalking me on the board has become a problem you can't control.

    To my DXO brethen, sorry to bring the board down like this. You know I try to keep it respectful. But I know this clown has been reading me on this board and he knows there are a lot of intellectuals here so, this rebuke stings more here, with an audience of his piers than on the SLW board. Now will he bite his tongue or respond..lmao. what to do? think newsnut think.

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    • silver opened one penny below the $38.95 price I gave, danced below it for about 1.5 hours and then took off upside.

      This is very bullish!

      • 1 Reply to chemaes44
      • I should point out, gapping up to my price target and opening at it is one of the most bullish tells you can get with my modelling.

        I see two scenario's potentially playing one has silver dancing at $39.43 tomorrow morning, the other has silver hitting $41.20 tonight before coming back to $39.88 by 8:30 tomorrow morning.

        These are the two highest probability scenario's but others could play out.

    • tks 44
      I will be buying a small position today or tomorrow.
      A test of the waters/
      spike

    • testing waters is sound as opposed to going all in.

      Even now as gold has risen to $1714.. silver is still having some trouble pushing above resistance points.

      However, miners beginning to lead the silver price can be considered a bullish development.

      we'll see. further analysis reveals that $40.33 is a critical price and that's where silver was stopped last night

      slw options are getting bid up too

    • As much as I hate to do it, my risk management rules tell me I have to take some losses today.

      So, I booked $7K loss by closing some of my silver position. I'm keeping the other part hedged and holding.

      That $39.43 level was breached to the downside. And I took action but tried to trade it today. That is a bad signal. but not only that, gold's price action was robust and for 2 or 3 days now, silver hasn't followed. The last time this type of divergence, with these magnitude moves happened, silver was sold down another 30 to 40%. I can't risk that. I don't believe it will happen but beliefs are for church folk.

      I'll watch tomorrow and get back in if the numbers say so.

      Dow down 6% for the year.

      Nasdaq, S&P and TSX down between 11-15% year to date. It hurts to buy and hold.

    • I definitely got a little dizzy today watching the small SLW and AGQ positions I have, but I'm still holding. I've lost track of how many times today and Friday the price of silver whooshed down right to the mid 38s level you indicated last week and then bounced upward, sometimes weakly, sometimes more strongly. Each time, I was watching and wondering if this time the floor would give away, but not so far. I only still have my position because I still think the odds favor silver catching back up with gold than gold coming back down to silver, but we'll see. As always, your commentaries appreciated.

    • I just took a glance at the live chart and saw that silver bounced off $38.64 twice more this evening. Is that a floor on the price or a trampoline? LOL

    • It's become a ceiling now.

      My numbers say that as long as silver remains under $38.00 it should go to around $36.67.

      Frustrating expecting silver to perform as gold, but then for it to get left behind.

      The double etf I was in yesterday opened down a full dollar today.

      I'm waiting to see how the market reacts to the fed at 2:15

    • I think what we've seen 10 mins before close and after today's close was the reversal.

      Silver goes up from here.

      I'm kicking myself for not buying at the close. I hesitated because the bid came within 18 cents of my bid and I refused to move the bid up.

      I'm pretty sure $38.67 will not be reached at all.

      I did buy slw options. I'm sort of loaded to the gills with them. If they play out, man will it be a nice christmas.

      The move from 10 mins to close to 7:00pm was extraordinary to me.

      buy tomorrow, is my call and you won't be dissappointed come sept

    • Of course I made a mistake.

      I meant to write I'm pretty sure $36.67 won't be reached.

      $39.54 is the number to watch right now.

      And, silver did indeed reverse:)

    • Hit $39.54 and pulled back..but the numbers now say $39.72 and if it hits this, well, we'll wait to make wild proclamations...

      Maybe back all the money I booked as a loss and then some.

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