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North American Energy Partners Inc. Message Board

  • commodityypro commodityypro Aug 31, 2011 7:58 PM Flag

    Hump Day Debrief - 8/31

    What's up Gang?

    What a week in the markets. Gold has shot back up $100 and in only 4 trading days, now over $1800 and headed back to $1900. S&P as well has been up 4 straight days. Here is a chart.

    http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=fb31625c-74f4-4ef1-bfe2-d7a9225b5d9f

    As you can see we have risen nicely since the 26th last week. We were tracking the white line I drew from the low on the 26th. Today we dipped below that for the 1st time and we saw some increased volatility towards the end of the day once that happened. If you look at the 1 day yuo will see as well that we are in a bear flag formation and ended the day by dipping below for a second, only to rally hard in to the last 20 minutes and bring it back up to the top white line of the bear flag. Where are we headed? the bias is now up but I still think we go back towards 1200 and lower by Friday. Really depends on the ISM and jobs reports on Thurs and Fri. If they are horrible maybe we rally due to more ammo for QEIII. These calls are tough. I am short now with SPXU, down though about 10% and about to cut bait if we make new high above 1230 tomorrow. I thought we were going to dip and stay in the purple lines bear channel but it quickly bounced back out. Bulls are trying hard to keep it up above 1200 and have been successful so far. It will take a good showing though the next 2 days to keep it above 1200, IMO. My Dec corn is still looking great. I got those at 6.50 and am up big on those so that is helping ease the SPXU blood that's been running the last few days.

    I don't have much more to add as I am slammed with work right now which is a good thing. I hope everyone is doing well and I look forward to some good discussions. I urge all debriefers, newcomers, passerby's, and of course the huge lurker following we have.

    GL!

    -Commodityy

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    • I don't know why everybody wants to call the Fed stretching out the duration in it's portfolio QE III. It is not. All they are doing is taking the money they are getting back from their portfolio and reinvesting it. From a money supply standpoint it is neutral. In fact, if they didn't do it, they would actually be removing liquidity from the system.

      If they actually do another round of QE, they will paint a huge target on themselves for every politician to shoot at as gas prices hit $5+ right in the middle of primary season. Merely promising to disband the Fed won't be sufficient to get you elected because everybody will be promising that. To get elected you will have to promise to not only disband the Fed, but to have them drawn and quartered.

    • Hey guys & girls,

      I'm around, just been real busy with family vacation stuff. I do come by and read the board from time to time to see what folks are thinking.

      Right now I'm long silver through SLW and a double etf, was long some coking coal until yesterday where I lightened up, and I'm long TLT feeling the FED can only really influence the back end of the curve. TLT looks like it's in a consolidation formation ready for breakout or head and shouldering. It seems those who argued at the last fed meeting for more engagement are supported by today's jobs number So, QE3 should come back in and support commo's but with an election on the horizon which politicians will have the backbone to support more QE.

      Silver and SLW were consolidating nicely the last couple of days. Yesterday, a hedge fund having the size of at least $1 billion minimum bought a large position in SLW. I think $44.26 is a first stop for silver but we'll see. I'm not trying to trade it today and remember Monday is a long weekend so secure your position today and be happy with it. Silver shorts are taking on the chin this morning and I think the bulls will press them higher.

      My conspiracy theory: China largely escaped the great depression from being on a silver standard 8 decades ago. I believe the chinese or covertly accumulating silver.

      Good trading
      chem

    • silly question Reit. You are and will always be a debriefer. I know everyone always looks forward to your debrief on the REITs. Kep'em coming. I might have to put some of my 401K in some REITS for the next run when QE gets announced.

    • Nice debrief Commodityy,

      It is worth noting on the recent move by the University of Texas to take delivery of $1 billion in gold, saying the decision is long overdue, and has only occurred because everyone else is now buying thereby taking metal out of circulation. But where were these guys five, ten years ago? That’s when they should have been doing all of this.

      Indeed the momentum chasers never show up until it's too late. On silver, if silver continues to go up like it has been over the past few weeks, yes, then it would get to triple digits this year. And then
      we’ll have to worry. It’s not parabolic yet. I hope something stops it from
      going up in the foreseeable future and we have a correction.

      There is one caveat, maybe the US dollar is going to become confetti in 2011, and if
      that’s the case and silver goes to $150, then obviously I wouldn’t sell silver. It would be the US dollar which is collapsing.

      But if silver goes up the way analyst are talking about without currency collapse, I
      would be very worried.

      So as usual, those long Precious Metals should not hate the Chairsatan but to urge him on to continue doing what he is doing so well, converting that once valuable combination of 75% cotton and 25% linen into "confetti".

    • I'm just trying to assess this AT&T/T-Mobile fiasco. On the one hand, I own T and I'm angry that the government feels the need to stick their nose in yet another business transaction where they don't belong. On the other hand, I own S and it was up nice today on the news. However, I only bought S because of it's buyout potential. Well, that potential just left the building and now I have to hope the company does well. I actually considered selling all of my T today and putting the money into S, but I decided against it.

      I still think the Dow closes the year around 13,000. Every time I say this, the market tanks the next day. Anyone who is short can thank me tomorrow.

    • Thanks, commo, for keeping the debriefs going. My main position right now is long silver. Oddly, given the gyrations in gold, silver has been in a fairly well defined uptrend for a few weeks now. Maybe because silver already went through the hikes in margin requirements that gold is now facing. In any case, I like the nice, steady (relatively speaking, given silver's usual volatility) trend. I also am heartened by the seasonal demand, which chemaes has well documented. (Where the heck is chemaes, anyway? I miss the posts.) Other than that, I'm just short the Euro, which has been a losing trade so far, but may pay off one morning when bad news comes out of Europe, and I await shorting opportunities domestically.

      • 1 Reply to lancekoliver
      • Hey Lance, thanks! I had to bail my short euro trade. I will wait on that one. I did forget to mention that the old man has some of my money in his gold long calls. He said we were already up like 15% and we got back in a little late after the correction. Anyway I don't see why gold won't be over $1,900 again soon so that trade is free $$ if you ask me. Not sure why I still mess with dumb SPXU/DRV/FAZ ect. I guess I just like the big swings in those and the action. Where is Chemaes, Tiger, SMG, and many more? Well, as we all know and me for certain, we all drift in and out over the years and most seem to come back. It has not been the same since DXO board got shut down. I will continue to do all I can to keep the discussions going and to be available as much as I can. I know with my biz, there are heavy times of the year and slow times and this is my mega heavy time right now, like 14 hour days. Going on VA K soon so it will all be worth it.

 
NOA
2.93+0.02(+0.69%)Apr 27 4:01 PMEDT