good thread guys!
I work in a coin shop part time. Most of our
business the past several years has been the
buying and selling of precious metals. as far
as the general public buying the metals in
bullion form Bars,Coins and such that stopped
around 1500 gold and 38 dollar silver. weekly
we would sell hundred+ oz gold and 10000+ oz silver
that market has dried up!
the good news (if your long) there has not been a stampede to sell! Just trickling in.
What does all this mean?
Heck I don't have a clue Lol!
Have a good evening all
The dollar looks like it will confirm an outside reversal for today, meaning it will be weak again tomorrow which should support commodities.
Dr. Copper reversed.
Crude reversed off that $78.09 area too.
Silver targets at least $31.70, probably better butter we won't jump the gun.
Bang. Is that the sound of the gold bubble popping. Quite a drop with the hedge funds cashing in. I did not expect it at this time with all the commotion in the headlines about global recession and depression coming. Would there be a lower support level to look at for SLW it this sell off continues?
What this is? no one will be able to say until it's in the history books.
I can say that the biggest downward moves today in commodities lwent like this: silver down 15.5%, copper down 5.58%, coffee 3.28 %, and sugar down 2.74%.
One doesn't have to be a rocket scientist to say, if silver is an industrial metal why should it be down 3 times greater than Dr. Copper? If silver is a currency, like gold, why should it be down 4 times more than gold today? something isn't right with how silver moves and regulators don't care to do anything about it so, ignore this and just trade the heck out of it.
The paper silver market isn't representative of the true silver price discovery and some day, this will reconcile itself.
I have $30.93, $28.54 to $28.38 and $27.30 as all buying points. I'll try my hand at all those points because downside risk has significantly decreased to negligent with these prices. its made me a lot of money and I'll play with those profits here.
Art Cashin, trader for 54 years said he's seen it 20 + times, a strong Thursday sell down (which we got), a chop sideways Friday (which we are getting), followed by a monday/tuesday capitulation which provides the last good buying opp.
Life is about chance.
I've been following your commentary, Chem, and watching silver from the safety of the sidelines. It's more dumb luck than brilliant execution that I got out of SLW and AGQ before the downdraft. Like you say, amazing moves. I don't think I'm fast enough to get back in this particular game yet, so I'll watch a while.
Wish I had sold it short, but better safe than sorry in spite of my gut feeling of a bounce. I was wrong again.
Anyway, it went through to exactly $34.20 on spot, but on the december to $34.34 on the first leg down when one of my first targets was $34.18.
I never would have thought it would reach that target last night but for it to go after the second target at $32.91, and to slice through it like butter was next to impossible in a two day period. It went to a low of $32.37 and bounced close and around enough to $32.91 plus or minus 30 cents to make it relevant.
I need to watch it to figure out what next.
Well, I claimed $37.26 is where it would bounce with downside limited to $36.60.
i was wrong.
It was clear on the 30 min, and lesser timeframe charts these were important prices because support/resistance bounced off these two numbers for 5 of the 6 hr trading day.
Significant failures like this tell me not to hold anything overnight.
I can't give any predictions because the damage on the charts created confusion. One macro model says because silver closed under $36.26 silver targets $28.31.
Another says that because silver breached $35.76 to the downside, $34.18 becomes the target before pause, bouncing and continuation potentially to $28.31.
Another says that if $35.55 is breached to the downside, then $32.91 becomes the target before pause, bouncing and continuation potentially to $28.31.
My gut tells me there's bounce tonight into tomorrow morning where one can establish a short before $35.55 fails, if it fails.
I'm going to have a beer. that was a painful day for me:)
Ugly! I'll leave commentary about why safe haven's like gold (or silver) are taking a beating during a time like this.
I posted a few days ago I saw a low at $38.05. Over the last nine hours the only positive candle was the one that opened at $38.03 and closed at $38.07. So that forms my guide post.
With that in mind, things have become very bearish for the metals with silver breaching that price target.
My model says silver should bounce upward from $37.26 and it may get as high as $38.25. If it gets to that high sell it all, then step back and wait.
The so far low of the morning is $36.87 and silver does hove downside risk to $36.60 but selling anywhere near these prices would be selling at a bottom in my opinion.
The implications of this recent fall puts $30.32 to $28.31 squarely in the cross hairs.
Preserve capital to fight another day.
Well, the first day after the unusual move and silver prices are down decently but SLW in USA and Canada is strongly supported and up. Silver Standard is up in both canada and usa and only PAAS seems to be struggling.
It's been a long time since we've seen something like this. The miners leading the metal or resisting the metal fall. To truly appreciate how strong this support in SLW is, one has to look at the fact that the major index, TSX which SLW is a part of, is down 100 points but SLW remains positive.
The $HUI, proxy the for the miners index, seems to be breaking out today and projects 12% higher. This begins to signify the miners may start to outperform the metals for a change. The only problem is that $XAU, more representative of how silver miners are doing, isn't breaking upward the same way as the HUI.
Otherwise a boring day. I have a silver low at $38.25 to $38.05 so I'll have bids in that range and waiting. It will probably happen tonight or tomorrow. The challenge is we may not get an opportunity to buy it if that low is hit tonight. I'll wait to see the prices tomorrow and not try to be too clever.