Bang. Is that the sound of the gold bubble popping. Quite a drop with the hedge funds cashing in. I did not expect it at this time with all the commotion in the headlines about global recession and depression coming. Would there be a lower support level to look at for SLW it this sell off continues?
What this is? no one will be able to say until it's in the history books.
I can say that the biggest downward moves today in commodities lwent like this: silver down 15.5%, copper down 5.58%, coffee 3.28 %, and sugar down 2.74%.
One doesn't have to be a rocket scientist to say, if silver is an industrial metal why should it be down 3 times greater than Dr. Copper? If silver is a currency, like gold, why should it be down 4 times more than gold today? something isn't right with how silver moves and regulators don't care to do anything about it so, ignore this and just trade the heck out of it.
The paper silver market isn't representative of the true silver price discovery and some day, this will reconcile itself.
I have $30.93, $28.54 to $28.38 and $27.30 as all buying points. I'll try my hand at all those points because downside risk has significantly decreased to negligent with these prices. its made me a lot of money and I'll play with those profits here.
Art Cashin, trader for 54 years said he's seen it 20 + times, a strong Thursday sell down (which we got), a chop sideways Friday (which we are getting), followed by a monday/tuesday capitulation which provides the last good buying opp.
Life is about chance.
From where I bought SLW, it's now down.
Watching SLW canada with volume 3.8, 3.6 and 1.1 million shares over the last three days respectively, in the last 30 mins it took only 30 thousand shares to send it down.
Also, silver looks to close above 40.57, which to me signifies higher prices to at least $41.20.
I think the traders are playing to see if the dollar is just falling to fill a gap or is it resuming downward, in which case traders will like to get short on commo's if its just a gap fill.
I'm looking at the market indices and they have lost major points in the last half hour too. Weird.
I'll hold on until tomorrow at least.
Yet, the miners are all getting slapped back.
As mentioned in the "currency wars" thread, I sold 2/3 of my AGQ a week ago and the other 1/3 the next day, largely because I did not feel comfortable with the way silver seemed to be underperforming gold. That underperformance, though not huge, has continued since.
Out of curiosity, I looked back at 2008, with the Lehman collapse, and sure enough silver dropped a lot more than gold, more than the usual silver-gold volatility margin. I was concerned that silver would take a much bigger hit proportionately than gold if/when the Euro situation goes critical, so I'm out of AGQ and SLW but still holding gold.
If I read you right, you seem to have a different outlook. Are you still expecting silver to go up significantly from here? Or just the short-term move to 41.20 you referenced above?
Well, the first day after the unusual move and silver prices are down decently but SLW in USA and Canada is strongly supported and up. Silver Standard is up in both canada and usa and only PAAS seems to be struggling.
It's been a long time since we've seen something like this. The miners leading the metal or resisting the metal fall. To truly appreciate how strong this support in SLW is, one has to look at the fact that the major index, TSX which SLW is a part of, is down 100 points but SLW remains positive.
The $HUI, proxy the for the miners index, seems to be breaking out today and projects 12% higher. This begins to signify the miners may start to outperform the metals for a change. The only problem is that $XAU, more representative of how silver miners are doing, isn't breaking upward the same way as the HUI.
Otherwise a boring day. I have a silver low at $38.25 to $38.05 so I'll have bids in that range and waiting. It will probably happen tonight or tomorrow. The challenge is we may not get an opportunity to buy it if that low is hit tonight. I'll wait to see the prices tomorrow and not try to be too clever.
I've been following your commentary, Chem, and watching silver from the safety of the sidelines. It's more dumb luck than brilliant execution that I got out of SLW and AGQ before the downdraft. Like you say, amazing moves. I don't think I'm fast enough to get back in this particular game yet, so I'll watch a while.
Wish I had sold it short, but better safe than sorry in spite of my gut feeling of a bounce. I was wrong again.
Anyway, it went through to exactly $34.20 on spot, but on the december to $34.34 on the first leg down when one of my first targets was $34.18.
I never would have thought it would reach that target last night but for it to go after the second target at $32.91, and to slice through it like butter was next to impossible in a two day period. It went to a low of $32.37 and bounced close and around enough to $32.91 plus or minus 30 cents to make it relevant.
I need to watch it to figure out what next.
I read some of the other posts on the SLW board and I don't want to respond over there because of the lack of civility.
One supposed answer for this massive exchange of shares is that SLW was added to the TSX index and a link was provided.
SLW has been a part of the TSX index since even before SLW started trading in the USA. And, re-balancing based on what I've seen in the past has never resulted in a price move like the one I saw on SLW's ticker. It was up 2% in 30 seconds.
good weekend to you