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North American Energy Partners Inc. Message Board

  • In the past three days I've seen a pattern of accumulation in SLW that I haven't seen in a very long time.

    I am long here.

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    • Perplexing.

      From where I bought SLW, it's now down.

      Watching SLW canada with volume 3.8, 3.6 and 1.1 million shares over the last three days respectively, in the last 30 mins it took only 30 thousand shares to send it down.

      Also, silver looks to close above 40.57, which to me signifies higher prices to at least $41.20.

      I think the traders are playing to see if the dollar is just falling to fill a gap or is it resuming downward, in which case traders will like to get short on commo's if its just a gap fill.

      I'm looking at the market indices and they have lost major points in the last half hour too. Weird.

      I'll hold on until tomorrow at least.


      Yet, the miners are all getting slapped back.

      • 1 Reply to chemaes44
      • Chem,

        As mentioned in the "currency wars" thread, I sold 2/3 of my AGQ a week ago and the other 1/3 the next day, largely because I did not feel comfortable with the way silver seemed to be underperforming gold. That underperformance, though not huge, has continued since.

        Out of curiosity, I looked back at 2008, with the Lehman collapse, and sure enough silver dropped a lot more than gold, more than the usual silver-gold volatility margin. I was concerned that silver would take a much bigger hit proportionately than gold if/when the Euro situation goes critical, so I'm out of AGQ and SLW but still holding gold.

        If I read you right, you seem to have a different outlook. Are you still expecting silver to go up significantly from here? Or just the short-term move to 41.20 you referenced above?

    • It's come close so far to $40.48, those last 7 cents plus 5 for good measure are important..so 40.62 would be perfect.

    • Silver just struck $40.61, one penny off...lol.

      $40.11 becomes the low support price now but if silver is able to resist falling below $40.42 this bull has sharpened horns.

    • It all seemed to play out, silver didn't fall more than 8 cents below $40.42 then exploded higher to $40.98 Dec 11.

      This look very bullish to me but Goldman sold exactly half their SLW position into this move and then stopped about 25 mins ago. Their selling worries me and as a result I'd like to see silver push above $41.54. They made 2-3% on $8 million for a days work, not bad.

      It seems the close this afternoon will be a wild one.

    • Did you guys see that!!!!!!!!!!!!!

      In the last minute of trade market orders totalling 15 million shares at market price buy were placed. That is a whopping 593 million dollar order.

      Multiple institutions were buying.

      SOMETHING BIG IS GOING ON.

      SLW CANADA shot up 2% in 30 seconds.

      SLW USA didn't move.

    • In after market, I'm still counting the shares but 5, 467, 000 shares have been bought.

      That is another $215 million dollars, nuts!

    • I read some of the other posts on the SLW board and I don't want to respond over there because of the lack of civility.

      One supposed answer for this massive exchange of shares is that SLW was added to the TSX index and a link was provided.

      SLW has been a part of the TSX index since even before SLW started trading in the USA. And, re-balancing based on what I've seen in the past has never resulted in a price move like the one I saw on SLW's ticker. It was up 2% in 30 seconds.

      good weekend to you
      chem

    • Well, the first day after the unusual move and silver prices are down decently but SLW in USA and Canada is strongly supported and up. Silver Standard is up in both canada and usa and only PAAS seems to be struggling.

      It's been a long time since we've seen something like this. The miners leading the metal or resisting the metal fall. To truly appreciate how strong this support in SLW is, one has to look at the fact that the major index, TSX which SLW is a part of, is down 100 points but SLW remains positive.

      The $HUI, proxy the for the miners index, seems to be breaking out today and projects 12% higher. This begins to signify the miners may start to outperform the metals for a change. The only problem is that $XAU, more representative of how silver miners are doing, isn't breaking upward the same way as the HUI.

      Otherwise a boring day. I have a silver low at $38.25 to $38.05 so I'll have bids in that range and waiting. It will probably happen tonight or tomorrow. The challenge is we may not get an opportunity to buy it if that low is hit tonight. I'll wait to see the prices tomorrow and not try to be too clever.

    • Ugly! I'll leave commentary about why safe haven's like gold (or silver) are taking a beating during a time like this.

      I posted a few days ago I saw a low at $38.05. Over the last nine hours the only positive candle was the one that opened at $38.03 and closed at $38.07. So that forms my guide post.

      With that in mind, things have become very bearish for the metals with silver breaching that price target.

      My model says silver should bounce upward from $37.26 and it may get as high as $38.25. If it gets to that high sell it all, then step back and wait.

      The so far low of the morning is $36.87 and silver does hove downside risk to $36.60 but selling anywhere near these prices would be selling at a bottom in my opinion.

      The implications of this recent fall puts $30.32 to $28.31 squarely in the cross hairs.

      Preserve capital to fight another day.

      Good trading
      chemaes

    • Wow..

      Well, I claimed $37.26 is where it would bounce with downside limited to $36.60.

      i was wrong.

      It was clear on the 30 min, and lesser timeframe charts these were important prices because support/resistance bounced off these two numbers for 5 of the 6 hr trading day.

      Significant failures like this tell me not to hold anything overnight.

      I can't give any predictions because the damage on the charts created confusion. One macro model says because silver closed under $36.26 silver targets $28.31.

      Another says that because silver breached $35.76 to the downside, $34.18 becomes the target before pause, bouncing and continuation potentially to $28.31.

      Another says that if $35.55 is breached to the downside, then $32.91 becomes the target before pause, bouncing and continuation potentially to $28.31.

      My gut tells me there's bounce tonight into tomorrow morning where one can establish a short before $35.55 fails, if it fails.

      I'm going to have a beer. that was a painful day for me:)

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