Hey there gang!
Happy New Year to all. I haven't been around for a while because last time i was here it just seemed people were disappearing.
Thanks to lance for reminding me. Good to see Tiger still a live.
I think the dollar index just renewed it's bull move. I was posting on the SLW board until it deteriorated pretty badly, bad chemaes because I was part of the break down I guess.
But I've been writing about the dollar for a couple of months. it was around 80.46 a few weeks ago, and having made it above that firmly i think it goes to 82.83 from the current 81.77.
As always, a rising dollar to me means falling hard commo's and indices dow, S&P, TSX etc. Trying to position short some of the indices right now. if i can't see the dollar index above 81.84 by end of day I'll close down those shorts.
coincidently, or not, gold silver, oil etc got wacked the last several hours as the dollar indec popped (related to the EURO falling 1.% down to 1.268)
How come i don't see a thread on oil discussions??
per the question>
>What is your current thinking on the short-term direction of the dollar? That's the thing I've been trying to figure out ... and so far not doing too well at it. I was expecting the DXY to go above 82, as you were, at one point, but instead it's back down near 80. <<
Yes, I was expecting it to shoot to the high 82's. On the Friday before the 16th of Jan the S&P downgrade of the Euro countries caused a swing in price suggestive of momentum for dollar index bulls. Prices have ebbs and flows and it was important for sustained momentum to occur. On the 16th that sustained momentum was wiped out after the partcipants had a weekend to digest the info.
As long as the dollar remains above 80.46, it is more likely than not it goes to 82.83. If it should close under 80.46 which is EXTREMELY strong support/ resistance line for a day or two, the dollar rally short term is over and that liquidity near 78.78 will draw the value downward.
Sorry to hijack your question and post it here, I thought I'd give the star'sters fingers a break from working so hard on me:)
Chemaes, thanks for the update, this helps with the decisions I make with my commidity trades. I'm not able to set here & watch. Just pop in & out once or twice a day, but I do read at night when I have more time. Thanks again.
I can't take credit yet...The dollar is right at the bottom of the range and it seems like it doesn't want to go down and through. It has basically finished at the same low for 10-12 hours straight
Similarly silver got above 30.37 and it should have exploded upward but it didn't. The buyers stayed away and there are some sellers who've entrenched.
When I see stuff like this that I don't understand I tend to want to go to cash.
That move by the dollar on Friday has been completely negated in the last few minutes. looks like it is finely going to start to move down.
Silver went back to 30.37 on the negation. A number I posted as bullish in the silver thread. If silver remains above 30.29 into 30.37, silver will move up between 2.8% to 6.1% today probably.
This is why I'm up at these ungodly hours.
get long everything is probably the bet today and out of defensive's (utility, healthcare, pharma) that seeem's to be the cycle.
81.84 was the dollar index price point above which I wished to go short and remain short some commodities and the general market.
The tech move on friday set the stage for the high 82.'s but it had to remain above 81.84 and go no lower than fill a gap to a low 81.69.
The gap movement confirmed high expectations but then, it all changed for some reason, again. It has fallen lower than was technically likely. It is pretty bizarre.
For reasons like this, over the last several months, I've gone into the market smaller, and less frequently. I've definately had to work a lot harder to make money.
Whereas I use to be able to find a really good trade every 2-3 days, that I'd say was a lock. I think I'm finding those trades roughly every 5-7 days now. Very different trading environment.
if I were to pull some number out of hat for how the 82.83 number is killed near term (defined as within a week), I'd say remaining below 81.26 does it.
posted on the other board a while ago: stats released for 2011 hedge fund performance...70% of hedge fund managers underperformed their benchmark by at least 2.5% for 2011, the worst number in recorded history. Another report indicated that the "by at least 2.5% number" specifically meant between -4% to -19% for the 2011 year.
Bright guys are having trouble making money, don't feel bad if you find it harder to make a buck recently. stay nimble.
Maybe Germany will come out a big winner, but last time I checked your portfolio wasn't stocks of German companies... More likely by the time the Fed and ECB are done economies on both sides of the Atlantic will be in shambles and the commodity producers will be laughing at their folly.