81.84 was the dollar index price point above which I wished to go short and remain short some commodities and the general market.
The tech move on friday set the stage for the high 82.'s but it had to remain above 81.84 and go no lower than fill a gap to a low 81.69.
The gap movement confirmed high expectations but then, it all changed for some reason, again. It has fallen lower than was technically likely. It is pretty bizarre.
For reasons like this, over the last several months, I've gone into the market smaller, and less frequently. I've definately had to work a lot harder to make money.
Whereas I use to be able to find a really good trade every 2-3 days, that I'd say was a lock. I think I'm finding those trades roughly every 5-7 days now. Very different trading environment.
if I were to pull some number out of hat for how the 82.83 number is killed near term (defined as within a week), I'd say remaining below 81.26 does it.
posted on the other board a while ago: stats released for 2011 hedge fund performance...70% of hedge fund managers underperformed their benchmark by at least 2.5% for 2011, the worst number in recorded history. Another report indicated that the "by at least 2.5% number" specifically meant between -4% to -19% for the 2011 year.
Bright guys are having trouble making money, don't feel bad if you find it harder to make a buck recently. stay nimble.