My four year quest has about ended. I have been selling 95% of my 'all in' position today. Hopefully, ARNA will rise much higher from here (longer term), but I just don't see it happening as quickly as it should. Sales data will dictate future price per share and semi-reliable data will not be available until this summer, if not by the end of the year. More time for shorts and hedge funds to spread FUD and control the price.
This morning, DEA finally completed their Schedule IV designation for Belviq, but in keeping with their tortoise slow efforts the DEA did not permit our marketing partner to begin marketing for one month (June 7th). History indicates that the 30 day waiver that was requested to allow sales to begin today should have been granted (very rare when it is not granted). IMO more manipulation.
Since we were 8.42 five days ago May 2d, before the European withdrawal was announced after hours, we have been as low as $6.50 and as of this moment have finally crossed $8 ($8.13) on large volume.
Still no press release from Arena...perhaps we can pop a bit higher tomorrow or after hours once the company acknowledges the fact that scheduling has been completed and our marketing partner is paying us many millions. Who knows...I am ready for diversification and am pleased to get away from the secrecy and incompetence of ARNA's public relations department.
I feel certain Doc Haluk is rocking and rolling today on this news of DEA schedule 4...
Turtle, Haluk, and Tiger (I can feel you out there):
I offer you heartfelt "congratulations!" I know that all of you kept the faith and I sincerely hope that all of you made (or will soon make) a large bucket absolutely full of cash...you earned it.
We have waited for months and months for DEA Scheduling...Management always telling us soon, soon, soon...eventually, they implied first quarter...out of the blue with no hints of any problems, ARNA withdraws European application last week.
There was no doubt ARNA was getting classification, but 'when' had become a big doubt. Buying yesterday would have worked but I cannot tell you how many times I did not take profits because 'any day' was so close and I didn't want to miss the run up with DEA and Europe so close...I cannot tell you how many times I could have traded in and out if I just played the delay game. Methinks you will have plenty of time to get back in ARNA at current prices, if not lower, over the next 6 months. Until sales results are posted, ARNA may not be going anywhere for awhile. Just churning and churning as calls expire worthless month after month and quarter after quarter.
Tiger has been out of ARNA for a long time having exited in the $9-ish area many, many moons ago. The bio's are indeed rewarding but often a good stock with great science, etc. is ruined by time and the inevitable delays put upon them by government agencies...often for the wrong reasons. ARNA's rat tumor bullshyt seems to still be popping its head up and directly affected our recent withdrawal from European consideration. ARNA was derailed two years earlier because of the 'surprise' and instigated 'rat tumor' issue. There is no real rat tumor issue but still it comes up.
I will be back in ARNA by December...but in the meantime, I think I will diversify into a few 'safer' plays.
The good news is that I recovered all of my 2009 losses in ARNA and made some money in the end. However, my $2 shares could have been sold after approval as high as $13 if I had just listened to Tiger and took profits after approval. She did and then reinvested for a short time before exiting for good.
Tiger has not participated in message boards for over a year.