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Security National Financial Corp. Message Board

  • livermore1929 livermore1929 Feb 22, 2013 4:45 PM Flag

    Now 45% off it's high on no news, the best short attack I have ever seen, simply stunning.

    This thing fell apart like a small biotech that had its one of two trial drugs disapproved by the FDA. Yet it is diversified and growing at 30% a year.

    I've now lost (on paper) 20% of all that I made on the ride up from 8 to 15 where I sold, isn't the market fun sometimes?

    That is because my average is 9.45 on twice as many shares.

    I was clearly on the wrong side of the tape on this one, however in the past all the SNFCA recoveries have been quick, even to the hour, not this time, just one slide after another. Oddly making the stock more and more valuable each day.

    What surprises me is that they did it without any rumors at all, no CITRON or Mudddy Waters research report or anything, just pure selling below the bid probably, and it worked so well, and when the avalanch started it garnered a life of its own.

    Damn, and this is now 10% of my stock portfolio too.

    I'm patient though, I'll wait the manipulators out. I held SAM for 13 years.

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    • lets b real if u jumped into this stock over a month and a half ago you are up BIG time!!! U could have got in and made mucho. Then for some reason SNFCA looked like it was going to stall, it hit a brick wall at 15, then people who got in early said, ok enough is enough no way I am going to let 200x my money go without taking some off the top. And it looks like once those guys started unloaded their sub $6/share holdings, SNFCA tumbled a bit, and THAT triggered a stampede. Now investors are waiting for (or should wait for) at least 2 days of modest gains before getting back in.

      • 2 Replies to itwohhoooeeedout
      • I sold at 15 form 8 because it stalled, also it had risen too fat too fast, 3 hours later a huge 160,000 share sale went through all at once. That was institutional.

        The stock recovered quickly and then continued to fall, that recovery was the point at which to go short (the first attempt at a rally after a sever break) however I didn't do so. Take a look at any variety of charts for that, although MCP in May 2011 is a great example.

        This seems like far more of a coordinated move to bring the price down rather than retail profit taking, the key variable being there have not been any meaningful spikes since the selling began. The derivation of that is that whomever is controlling the attack meets every buy with a sale (often under the bid) and therby prevents the rise.

        The key is to hit the stop loss orders which are (thanks to the SEC) available for the MM's to see. Then the retail crowd starts to think that something is really wrong with the stock because "the market is telling them something" and they sell sell, then further stop losses are taken out as the avalanch has now gathered a life of its own.

        Often what is found is that MM's are part of the selling group, how they bribed the SEC to let them see open stop loss orders is simply a matter of corruption.

        If you want to see Jim Cramer explain this when he didn't think he was being taped go to youtube and look up "Jim Cramer Explains How The Stock Market Is Manipulated" His use of the words "scaring the moron longs into thinking there is something wrong with the company" should shed light onto the aformentioned short tactics.

        I've seen it many many times, although rarely to this extent, it is almost always done in micrcap stocks, see QCOR and GMCR - both oddly to 17.

        Often what shorts will do is start rumors or blog a fraud post or send out a guy like Bill Ackman (HLF). The DOJ should bring charges against Ackman, a blind Monkey could see it was a scam. however I'm not holding my breath for them to act..

        As small investors we take advantage of these fire sale prices by buying in after the panic has subsided and wait for the stock to catch up to the fundamentals, and the shorts preceed to cover. At least that's what I've done in the past, and it seems to work.

      • Yes, but with the persistant selling, there does have to be some common sense. Savvy investors know that SNFCA should be valued fundamentally, and is having unreal growth, epsecially in their mortgage division. However their Insurance division is showing strong growth as well. With $.42 in the Sept qtr, and with mortgage originations still on fire, I see no reason we shouldn't annualized this to around $1.60+/year. Give the stock a 10 PE, and it takes you to $16.

        . Without news to the contrary, it should be expected that SNFCA will continue to grow, and the Dec qtr should come in very strong. I also thing business will remain strong in 2013. I for one am averaging down, as I feel the stock is worth much higher.

    • The manipulation of this stock is blatant. I haven't seen something like this since VHC a few years ago.
      What's going on here?
      A: there is some insider information floating around.
      B: fund managers and large investors are colluding to bring the stock price down, and shake out the weak hands.
      C: thousands of investors decided this week independent of each other that they don't like making money and they should sell a stock near its 52-week high with no news or no compelling reason.

    • Hey baby, we in this together. I'm down 8 percent with this puppy 20% of my portfolio (I'm still in college). When this stock does well, it rockets. If the thing has a bad day, every shareholder holds their breath. This is solid. I'm gonna make a lot of money at these prices, my brother.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • 1 Reply to guardian733
      • Hey, I'm in school myself, getting an MBA, I'm on the east coast, we study such zany concepts as earnings and book value and such, and this company has them.

        Yep, this thing will rise again and the shorts will cover, this is just how the game is played (sell the rip and buy the dip) it seems from what Livermore is saying that this was a created dip, and I believe him.

        I'm glad that my cost is 9.35 and not a lot higher, I expected a fall from 15, just more in the 20% range. This is just crazy and it seems nobody wants to touch it until it gets more expensive, mo begets mo I guess.

        I was looking at the p/s of DDD today, it is around 10 that's pretty absurd, and it is not supported by their income statement, ultimately value wins the day.

4.75-0.02(-0.42%)Jun 24 4:00 PMEDT