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Accelrys, AŞ Message Board

  • clevelandmccormick388 clevelandmccormick388 Feb 27, 2008 4:00 AM Flag

    Where Else Can You Find These Gains?

    click " ",

    you'll be glad you did

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    • That is one thing we can agree on. At $6 there is no downside. Where we differ is our view on the upside. While you believe that there is significant upside, I believe that there is little if any chance that the present management( and the present status of public company) will be able to be successful. But then, that is precisely why there is a stock market. Right?
      Time will tell who is right but...having just finished reading an article about ACCL and Inforsense I am more convinced than ever that , yet again, this BI business is a fad.

    • I cannot tell if this stock will go to $10 or not but can tell you that, net of cash, the business is not worth more than the market says it is worth today i.e. about $80 million ( or 1x revenues). This is what Tripos sold for and , in both cases, the business was at best functioning at breakeven. The only reason for Tripos' demise was their UK adventure and their Board's stupid decision to not issue shares at $30 when they were offered that kind of money by a number of investment banks.
      ACCL has never been able to show consistent operating profits, is bloated and has , by now, been in every "fad" business one can imagine. Just remember combinatorial chemistry, cheminformatics,nanotechnology and now business intelligence. All this while smaller, more nimble outfits were able to function profitably and with reasonable body counts. IMHO this company needs no more than 120-150 people in which case it could produce profits of about $35-40 million p.a.. What do you think the stock price would be then? And yet, no management has ever achieved even close to such performance because none has been able ( or willing ) to be the hatchet guys. And so shareholders suffer and the stock has been dead money for many years. But, while miracles do happen wise investment decisions cannot be made in expectation of a miracle. And, in my opinion, we might need a miracle to see the stock at $10 by year end.

    • Did you look at the comparable figures for the year before?
      Deferred revenue is coming down which means that revenues for the year should be down too unless the bookings pick up. And ... what will make them pick up?
      Do not be fooled by the recent announcements. They very seldom result in $$$$ unless MSFT is so hungry to get into this industry that it is willing to pay software developers to port some of their software to their " platform". Possible but unlikely. The good old days of IBM and SGI paying for such things are gone. JMHO.

    • I'm with resban on this one.

      This company lacks the leadership and breadth to do what they need to do.

    • Time will tell who is right on this but, I have been more right than wrong on this company ever sincec I have started to follow it almost 10 years ago. Just check my posts if you care to verify the veracity of my statements.
      Good luck to you but I hope that you are not betting too much money on this company.