I had took some time to run the Covariance between POOL's stock incerase and housing starts, and few other economics index. All the result indicates that there is little or none covariance between the POOL price increase and housing market. The date I used was based on last 15 years. So let the market to laugh at those who short. Eventually they will use their hard earned money to prove their ignorance.
Now go back and check the stock increase relevant to the purchases of their competitors and stock splits and report back.
It looks like the bandwagon is over and back to slow moderate growth, not that there is anything wrong with that. It doesn't appear to be a "quick buck" stock anymore.
It will be interesting to see where their 4th quarter results come in. A twenty-two percent wasn't enough to spark an increase the last time. It's anybody's guess on what it is going to take. I would imagine you are going to see a range of 38 to 42 until the years results come out.
If you don't think interest rates and a housing bust don't affect the pool industry, then come join the few of us who make a living at it.