They offered free credit monitoring to ALL customers, not just the ones affected so far. I don't know...110M customers, say 20% will sign up, and say TGT negotiated a cheap credit monitoring program at $20 per year, that is 400M in charges. Some analyst mentioned 40M cards need to be replaced at $10 per card, that is another 400M, but I have seen reports that 70 million cars need to be replaced, so replacement could be 700M.
Hardship damages? Not sure...
Punitive damages? Not sure...
Decimated customer base which stopped shopping mid-season in December? Priceless.
So, I can give you an educated guess on the low end - 1 billion in charges related to the breach, due to credit monitoring and card replacement. I have no ide what the high end will be. It is not important. The expenses are negligible when compared to the loss in revenue.
I think that the loss of customer base is the key most important factor here. The bad PR does not help TGT here. No apology, no crisis management. They dared to offer a 10% off coupon....are they kidding? Other than this coupon and the credit monitoring, their strategy has been head-in-sand, hoping the storm will pass. But it won't. The fact that there a few other retailers in the same boat does not rectify their own situation, and does not ameliorate its severity.
Of course none of the 110M victims will ever get $5000 cash from target since they will have no choice but to file for protection.But they will get shares in the new target that may someday be worth $5000.