There are both sides to this but I think the down side is the easier position to argue. On the bullish side, the security breach is all but history. Also, while the Canadian roll out was apparently a disaster, Target board members are taking out leadership they held responsible for the poor management of this undertaking. The key question is "when will Canada become profitable ?".
I'd say Target wants to put all this bad news in the former CEO's suitcase along with his large compensation and call it a quarter, so it will likely look UBER bad.
All this does not mean that the stock will be hit 20% . The Target board is looking at every problem and seeking the means and the people to solve them. Will it work ?
I am believing the today and tomorrow's earnings day hit will be closer to a 10% loss, so we tend to agree on the downside, but not on the amount.
Canada will not be profitable for a long time the stores are empty because Canadian were expecting the same merchandise at close to the same prices as they were used to getting when they went shopping at Target in the USA which is not the case and the Canadians feel they are getting ripped off.
Think bad earnings is priced in but not sure the degree of bad earnings. If they post a horrific number I could see a 10% loss, if mildly bad then maybe 1-3% depending on call.. With the ceo being forced out and now this, wall st. knows something happened and a likely bad quarter.