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Vanguard High-Yield Corporate Message Board

  • therightstuffer therightstuffer Feb 19, 2009 7:57 PM Flag

    What's Down!

    Ok folks...down 8 cents in the last five days. What's going on here and are we headed lower? If so,how much?

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    • 1. Anyone that tells you how far down how soon and when this fund is going is just a BS artist. The greatest minds in economics have blown it; how would some doofus on a stock board really and truly know. I think this is good safe haven where reasonable dividends will be paid for a long time, but what do I know. It's only my opinion.
      2. Blaming the current market conditions on Obama is so childish. It crashed like this in November before he was even elected and McCain couldn't have taken any miraculous actions either. The reality is our nation has been on a reckless spending spree, greed has ruled all for a long time and we needed to pay the piper to get back on track. Back on track we will surely get but don't hold your breath.
      3. We are down 2.2% over the last 11 days since hitting a recent high of 4.53. Big whoop! The market in general is down 6% in just this past week. This is a slow steady safe play. If you want to do flip trades you'd be better off in volatile equities. Try BAC if you have the cojones, it could double in a week or go to zero.
      Good luck all.


      • 2 Replies to kenpalley2000
      • judykowen Feb 21, 2009 1:03 PM Flag

        Great comments, you re right on!

      • Agreed. Last year was a huge anomaly for junk. Worst performance ever! This year is likely to be a much more normal year. Just think, if we end the year at $4/shr that is about an 11% loss from the recent high. But we have a yield in that range so we would really only give back a small amount of our gain. A decent year considering what treasuries are yielding and certainly nothing to fret about.

        Fridson predicts about a 10% gain this year so he has us ending the year at about the same price we started at $4.27 - so we just get the yield this year. Next year he is expecting much better returns.

        So buy and hold or play the trend, it probably won't make a lot of difference this year.

    • Yes, I am hoping it sells off here some. I still have a position but it is a far cry from what I owned at $4.00. I think you can just hold it though. If Marty Fridson owns this fund that is the highest recommendation you can get.

      Sure would like to see the S&P below 750. I would actually start buying stocks at that point.

      • 1 Reply to pwhz
      • the rightstuff, aren't those 1% redemption fees eating you up? Unless you are wedded to VWEHX you might want to look at LBHBX or PAXHX which are redemption free. They will give you 4 round turns a year. LZHOX has the same 1% as VWEHX except it is only for one month.

        Junk is looking a bit shaky and the closed end junk funds are downright ugly. After being as heavy as 82% in junk, as already posted sold some last Friday and Tuesday to where I was 15% (all open end) and after today am down to only 8%. At this rate could be all out sometime next week. I hate it, but in this economic environment have to play it close to the vest. Capital preservation means more to me than collecting dividends on an ever depreciating asset. On the other hand have to be prepared to ramp right back up if there is some catalyst akin to the December Fed meeting that sends junk bonds flying again.

    • The high-yield party is over. Hang in there for the yield, if you must. But this fund is going back to $4.20 or lower.

      Depending on when you got in (I bought at $3.96), it may be best to pay the 1% fee and get out with a solid profit plus the dividends you've accumulated.

      Just MHO.

    • It's bo. No,not body odor...banks and obama. The market (including bonds) will continue to tank until the banks are fixed. Also the market doesn't like obama's socialistic programs. He caters to the have-nots and they out number the haves.

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