Nice analysis but junk bonds don't react much to changes in rates. Examples: in 2007 the FFR was at 5% and VWEHX was at $6.25. In 2009 the FFR was at 0% and VWEHX was at $3.90. To get a clue as to where junk is going I watch M&A activity,consumer sentiment and the general trend of equities. Put away your Treasury bond charts and do something more productive.