Maybe your due diligence is to read seeking alfalfa articles. This company is very far from insolvent so BK will not happen. They have $170M at 9/30 and are generating $45M cash each quarter (after the dividend). Apparently you did not bother to add up the maturities
By 2018 when the largest near-term maturity of $460 is due, they should have $610 available to pay the maturity (assuming no refinance) so they will have $150M still after this maturity and all this assuming no improvement in operations or additional revenue coming on line. This also ignores that they have $119M restricted cash for the purpose of collateral/repayment and an unused $150M line of credit. I'm sick of this insolvency argument so please #$%$ unless you have some brilliant insight contrary to the facts.
The debt is easily manageable, I would offer that you are more likely to go bankrupt shorting this than the company is.
From the latest filing:
Senior unsecured notes, due July 2014 190.0 190.0 5.9%
Series A senior unsecured notes, due August 2015 150.0 150.0 5.9%
Series B senior unsecured notes, due August 2017 75.0 75.0 6.0%
Senior unsecured notes, due 2018 $ 460.0 $ 460.0 9.0%
Piedmont construction loan, due 2013 76.6(1) 127.4 Libor plus 3.5% - Will likely be refi'd
One of AT's largest ongoing expenses, nat gas, is going to be held down in cost and most probably will decline leading to improved margins. Right now a bit of a spike with the very cold spell (nat gas up), but that is not continuing and we are projected to be warmer going forward(nat gas prices receding). So this projection is conservative at worst, with upside quite probable.