I sold 2500 shares yesterday at 2.74 and still hold 3500. God, what is going on with this price action. Anyone? This stock is bipolar. I guess I am holding for quite a while. Took a loss on the 2500 hundred with a cost basis of 2.92 but better than now. Ugh.
The street/cramer/Goldman have AT in play for a while now pumping and dumping. With the previous dividend cut, and their refinancing of debt management has gotten themselves in what I think is a pretty solid position. Also they have a new biomass facility to come online in late '14 early '15 which should improve their solvency even more. I bought some at 3.15, bought more at 2.55. I am long and have my raincoat on to weather the storm. Q4 should show a profit. Q1 will show a loss again because of the debt restructure. Q2-q3 statements of '14 is when we will really know where AT is on the long term. Plus I think they have some contracts up for renegotiation this year that we need to keep an eye out for.
You have to follow the volume. up yesterday on 2.7million shares and down on 300k shares today. Funds typically do not start buying until 20-30 mins into the trading session when there is more liquidity. More important to watch where it goes the rest of the day than during low volume/liquidity periods.
Year End earnings will be negative, Q4 maybe a few cents on the positive; but what will kick this up or down is would be 1) a significantly lower book value due to write large downs caused by asset sales or revaluation of asset value, ie lost intangible value, 2) completion of the debt offering, 3) new secondary offering, 4) suspension or reduction of dividend. A very careful read of the debt news releases implies management is trying very hard to maintain covenant terms so the the current dividend regardless of coverage ratio, but that does not mean those terms will be the final terms.
Short Trade advice: next few weeks will be fun for trades who buy when the down volume is much higher, and sell when the up volume kicks. This stock priced so low, it's attracting lots of penny stock button pushers.
Long Trade advice: it's too late to sell at this level, so buy more to average your price down and hope for bump up due to some news release. You can also, sell July Puts if you really want to own this stock long term.