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Kansas City Southern Message Board

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  • lner2512 lner2512 Oct 9, 2009 1:37 AM Flag

    Rusty Spike Q3--2009

    KSU missed on 2Q analysts' estimates but the stock closed at $21.03, has gone up nearly 30% since. I'm betting they'll beat the 3Q consensus EPS estimates of 22 cents per share by a good margin. But is that already baked into the stock price?

    My gut feel EPS WAG is $.33, based on no insights at all.

    KSU continues to mystify me. I can't help feeling there are people buying the stock who have more in mind than the fundamental information available to the rest of us.

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    • I did a little actual research and revised my guesstimate downward to $.29 per share, a 7 cent beat compared with TDA's reported consensus estimates of $.22 per share. Analysts have reportedly been 21% low on their 3Q earnings estimates so far according to CNBC and I believe KSU will benefit more than they expect from improvements in their carloadings and operating ratio.

      If KSU does beat, there may be some interesting price action. According to Yahoo, KSU has the highest % of institutional ownership of the four rails below at 91% (UNP is next at 84%) and the highest short interest at 10.32%, with CSX--no surprise--second at 6.47%. CSX' CEO will be on Cramer this afternoon, may be good for some insight into the rails' future.

      I also see that Lord Abbett owned over 13% of KSU common at June 30, the last reporting date listed by Yahoo, most of it for their own account. They do not show as owners of any UNP, BNI, or CSX stock, so they do not appear to be investors in rails as a sector. Yahoo also reports significant sales by institutions in the quarter ended that date, if i read their tables correctly and their data is accurate. I'd like to know whether Lord Abbett was a net buyer or seller in Q2, and what happened in Q3.

      Does anyone have an insight into Lord Abbett or their intentions re KSU? Their website portrays them as a privately held, old-line money manager, not necessarily a go-go PE firm.

    • My best guess is also a little over estimates. Where are the other guesses? I want that spike back!
      378.8M @ .26 eps


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