As you postulate, I'm sure OME has take and pay contracts, and that a portion of these contracts may have fixed pricing. I would also assume that when OME exceeds its fishing expectations, the excess inventory either sits in inventory or, better, is sold on the market at spot. I, too, have been following soybean prices and expect that OME has not had difficulty in selling its excess.
My very rough evolving comps for this quarter, which take into account lower oil yields, generally work out to be consistent with the higher analyst expectations. I guess we'll know shortly.
question is, how many "extra tons" have they caught (and presumably sold at higher prices). even if only 10,000 "extra tons" are sold at higher price with $300 "extra net profit" that would be $3MM in the quarter ? of lets consider a world where fishmeal is up to these levels for an entire year, then there would be a "time lag" but my figurin' says there still otta be a years worth or 130,000 tons of fishmeal at extra $300 per ton profit ? $39MM in extra profit ? if that is not the math, then my one room Georgia school house mustn't have served me very well !