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Omega Protein Corporation Message Board

  • golfn007 golfn007 Jul 26, 2012 11:05 AM Flag

    Q2 Earnings

    hmmm - the Aug 7th earnings date is getting closer, and we've been creeping up all the time. Now we have a major down move, on an up market day. perhaps the first revisions not looking so good ? comments anyone ?

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    • I have been out of this stock for a long time made some money and then doubled down and lost some. The technicals are very poor. The stock has a sell rating. looks grim. You know this management to be at the kindest inept. If there is a surprise it must be to the upside but I am not laying it. These fools can not get out of their own way. The market place is not going to help long term demand with the recent rejection of the claim that Omega 3 supports heart health. It is arguable that it could even be harmful. This is hard to believe as I have been taking it for years with no ill effects. Not sure if it helps though.I am not short here but I am thinking about it.

      Sentiment: Sell

    • Beginning to have some second thoughts about getting back in at $3.

      Investigated this big fish meal price "run up" and discovered that in April 2010 meal was $1961.11 / ton.
      OME eked out a little profit in 2010 but it was far from exciting.

      July 2012 closing was $1735.12 /ton

      So.... We're far from historic highs of a couple of years ago (12% lower by my math), and oil yield is still in the tank.

      I may well wait on $2.50

    • Well……. Thought I ought to check in and see if I made a wise decision bailing out and discovered this little gem in the press release.

      “The Company also recorded a net gain on disposal of assets of $3.4 million for the second quarter of 2012 primarily related to sale of its Morgan City, Louisiana facility, partially offset by the net loss on disposal of certain assets. …. Excluding the impact of the net gain on disposal of assets, net income for the second quarter of 2012 would have been $0.3 million ($0.01 per diluted share).”

      They sold Morgan City? Are they closing it? Are they leasing it back? If so, how long a lease did they enter into? For how much?

      Regardless, If they hadn’t sold off assets they’d have netted 1¢ a share.

      See y’all again at $3

      • 1 Reply to therealsportfish
      • realsport - good point, this company bascially "broke even". i was able to listen to the conf call over the weekend - best i could understand, mgt basically said that they have not yet enjoyed the current price spikes cause everything they are selling now was contracted 9 months ago ? but they also dodged the question multiple times about making projections for Q3 and Q4. If Q3 isn't a blowout quarter then something is "leaking" in the ships hull.

        if i understood it correctly, they said that their average sales price per ton was within $30 of the previous comparative time frame? how could that be if prices are rising so much.

        one of the analyst tried to ask about where all the extra tons went, and mgt completely confused me - i was a Biology major back in the day and my years with industrial farming companies i spent a lot of time calculating yields.... for the life of me, i could not understand any of their answers, nor how they were trying to "explain away" the yield thing. stumbling through answers does not instill confidence.

        if they are setting on a bunch of "un-contracted" inventory, why not just clearly say that -- and that they are going to sell it at maximum price ? or have they contracted all that material at lower prices ?

        it appears the market didn't pummel them this time - unfortunately, without more info its hard for me to see this much above $8 (not the $10 that the company should easily be able to fetch --- they simply cannot generate the profits that they should be able to generate - consider how small and simple the business really is -- gotta wonder where the profits are going.

        unfortunately they are not a gittrrrrdonnnne kinda company.

    • well, the more things change, the more they stay the same and this little company.

      as best i can read the Tea-Leaves, the $2.5MM in earnings is on par with a "nomal" quarter, meaning they didn't get any bounce from the high fishmeal prices - so either they are holding inventory, or most of their production is 'locked' on forward contracts so they can't enjoy the spot market price moves. so per my earlier question, will they enjoy these higher prices for the future 12 months of contracts ?

      they essentially have an extra 10,000mt of production during the first six months of this year vs last year, yet fishmeal sales are down $5MM or about 18% -- this would appear to be a "double" impact on inventory (selling less and producing more) which should bode great for future quarters.

      they keep talking about this cyvex biz, but i only see
      $200,000 increase for the Period, (from 4.0 to 4.2 ?) they need a lot more than that to get share price to reflect a new PEG. what happened to all the growth in cyvex from Q1 ? it has fallen off a cliff.

      have to run this morning for an old geezer's golf day - i'll listen to the earnings call on re-run later this week - but for sure, if anyone can get any feel of what's happening (or maybe get an answer to some of these questions) please post a message today !

      hitemstraight and gittrrrrdonnnnee

 
OME
14.56-0.39(-2.61%)Sep 19 4:06 PMEDT

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