Volatility is a strange bird. UVXY almost seems to be a downside hedge because volatility should be a two way street (up & down), but it isn’t.
I simply follow the earnings calendars, implied volatility, attempt to read the tea leaves of major world events (Euro crisis). I knew when Sarkozy lost the preliminary elections in France over the weekend I made a good move holding until Monday. He faces a runoff on May 5th, I’ll go to Intrade and contact friends in France leading up to May 5th.
If official QE3 happens all bets are off, put in a GTC offer at $13 for UVXY and you will get it. “Sell in May and go away” – volatility should be up a little in May – July, then nothing.
There was a poster that had a simple algorithm for the VIX versus VXX, but I don’t have the time to follow the day-to-day percentage variable of that calculation.
Lastly, hate to admit it, but I listen to the 5:00 cnbc show just to hear what the Najarian bros have to say about volatility……
Arizona – spent a lot of time on the old champion and links courses at the Biltmore, great hotel and club.
THANKS for taking the time to respond. I tend to agree with all those world events and believe QE3 is a forgone conclusion.
There's a great radio show on KFNN in Phoenix (1510) at 2pm locak time weekdays. The guy, bill tatro, has been so spot on interpreting all of these events, it's been incredibly insightful. If u go to kfnn's website, they have a daily audio archive. You have to look past his self promotion, but it's quite good.
As to those links, beautiful area, but i may be the only guy in the state that doesn't play.