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ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Fut ETF Message Board

  • greenbrier692 greenbrier692 Aug 16, 2012 11:15 PM Flag

    I CAN'T TAKE IT ANYMORE!!!!!

    When will this thing pop a little?

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    • it did pop 4.99 to 5.65 did you get out sure hope so

    • 22 year old with 50K, you can learn a lot from this guy Pauls statements here. He has a similar view to mine.

    • Thank you for that valuable insight, former Senator Santorum!

    • "It doesn't take a catastrophe to spike volatility". UVXY <> volatility. Let's stick to the holding at hand, here. You can't trade $VIX, but you can trade UVXY, which is a trading vehicle that is supposed to trade in step with $VIX, however, contango, decay, negative roll yield, blah, blah, blah, generally keep it on a downward trend vs. $VIX without a significant negative catalyst. So, $VIX may spike or trade sideways while UVXY continues it's current downward trend.

      And I have to disagree yet more. At this point, I would say that it would indeed take a small catastrophe to prop UVXY to $8.53. And, until that catastrophe, it will most likely fall further in the near-term. That should be clear to everybody by now.

      Even so, the perception (or reality) of an illegitimate rise of $SPX and the other markets is not a catalyst for a market fall. It is a backdrop, but it is not itself a catalyst. Sorry, that idea is completely bogus. For example, when the dot-com bubble burst, the catalyst was poor earnings and failed start-ups that brought the markets down to reality and rallied $VIX (or VXO, or whatever it was called back then). It wasn't the perception that the markets were overbought.

      So, you could say poor Q3 earnings will be the catalyst. But, that's two months away. So, until then, down, down, down, down. Unless you have a different catalyst. "The markets feel toppy", as some say, and as you're basically saying now, is not a catalyst. It's a backdrop. So, unless you're going with the Q3 earnings idea, the question is still unanswered.

      Meanwhile, I missed the new all-time low for UVXY.

      GLTA

    • You would be wrong. I have 3 trading accounts, as I have posted before. Why would I spread 50K that thin?

    • Because the market cannot self-sustain with continuing diminishing volume. Because NO sidelined cash will ever return if it doesn't drop to 2009-ish levels.
      Because the current market level doesn't accurately reflect the current economic picture, regardless of "improvements."

      The very nature of its rise is a catalyst for a fall. And it doesn't take a catastrophe to spike volatility. Just persistent selling pressure, not these penny-ante pullbacks.

      JMO and good luck.

    • OK, whatever you think....

      But you would be wrong.....

      I have three trading accounts, as I have posted before...I do actually have a trading account with a little over $50,000.00. It is the one I use for buying options and when I short a stock that I am holding long when I want to box my position. As such, it is the smallest. And since volatility has disappeared, it is the one I use the least at the moment.

      Thanks and maybe try not to stereotyp so much.

      Good luck.

    • OK, whatever you think....

      But you would be wrong.....

      I have three trading accounts, as I have posted before...I do actually have a trading account with a little over $50,000.00. It is the one I use for buying options and when I short a stock that I am holding long when I want to box my position. As such, it is the smallest. And since volatility has disappeared, it is the one I use the least at the moment.

      Thanks and maybe try not to stereotyp so much.

      Good luck.

    • I believe it will happen when Israel hits Iran.

    • Yeah, your strategy is definitely different. If I'm wrong on any pick, I cut my losses at 5% (sometimes less if the inverse catalyst is obvious) if at all possible. When my theory is wrong or my timing is bad, I bail and tweak or discard my original theory, or bail and wait until the catalyst I'm banking on truly takes hold.

      Frankly, I don't see the point in ever holding all the way up to 40% in losses (& climbing). Or hedging a personal trading account, for that matter. It's like betting against yourself with a portion of your own portfolio, guaranteeing some ever present losses. To a degree, I can see why large businesses hedge. They can't exactly shift into reverse on a dime. But, a personal TRADING account is supposed to be ultra-liquid. Get in and/or get out at the drop of a hat, as the market dictates.

      Rather than bet against myself, I'd rather have a theory, stick to it across the board until the tide starts to turn, then make the appropriate adjustments. In 2008, I learned that those adjustments should potentially include quickly dumping every long and moving to cash with a percentage in market shorts when the markets start to dive on an obvious catalyst.

      I know this market is overbought. I know the bubble will burst. This set-up is very similar to the dot-com bubble, and it will burst in the near future, BUT NOT WITHOUT A NEGATIVE CATALYST. So, I'm not accumulating UVXY now only to watch it fall week after week while the bubble expands as you and so many others have.

      Assuming no reverse split, UVXY will eventually bottom, then rise relatively slowly when it has a catalyst, unless another 9/11-type event occurs and rockets it to $100 over the course of a few days. In any case, I will liquidate longs and jump on the UVXY bandwagon when the catalyst is apparent.

      Right now, the only relatively near-term catalyst I see is QE3 vaporization, which is weeks away if it happens at all. Meanwhile, UVXY is testing all-time lows. Like I said, it will go lower, and lower, and lower UNTIL A SIGNIFICANT NEGATIVE CATALYST BECOMES APPARENT. That is the phrase YOU too quickly read past. But, you are not alone. Too many here believe that UVXY will sky-rocket tomorrow because they believe the market is "toppy". What kind of catalyst is that?

      Many folks on this MB also believe that a near-term repeat of last year's TVIX rally is imminent. But, TVIX's catalysts have lost their energy. This is not 2011. There is no near-term US debt ceiling debate. The EU debt crisis is being addressed. Ineffectively, most likely, but it is being addressed. And the markets like it. EU bond rates dropped quite a bit today.

      So, I will scream the questions from the mountain tops until somebody hears me: "WHAT IS THE NEGATIVE CATALYST THAT ALL OF YOU ARE LOOKING FOR?!?!?! THE ONE THAT IS GOING TO ROCKET UVXY TO $100 IN 2012?!?!?! WHEN WILL IT HAPPEN?!?!?!"

      I will wait for the answers while UVXY teases all-time lows.

      GLTA

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