Wow, UVXY shorts have discovered the only "SURE BET" in the markets
Just short UVXY anywhere and you make money...LOL
There are no sure bets in Wall Street.
As said by many of the shorts here (which are actually long the markets) UVXY is not a stock.
Just based on that statement it is more indicated to follow technicals. For the first time UVXY is actually going up as markets are hitting new highs. That is the first tell tell sign that UVXY is turning. The feds done its thing, the debt ceiling and fiscal cliff are resolved and earnings are nothing but a yawn as indicated by INTC, MSFT and AAPL. Volume is not confirming and internals are not specially blow out positive. All signs of market top is in.
The trade and postition is long UVXY and the returns will be in a matter of few weeks, if not days or hours.
If the UVXY shorts truly believe UVXY is rigged, then a rigged game can turn the other way really fast.
"Just based on that statement it is more indicated to follow technicals."
If UVXY were a stock, then it would follow technicals more closely, not the other way around. But it's an ETN that follows VIX futures, or more specifically, it follows NAV which is determined based on futures price action, therefore, it doesn't follow technicals like a normal stock. Sure, you may see a short squeeze here and there, but that arbitrage between NAV and market value will be taken advantage of rather quickly. Another thing to note is that so long as contango exists for most of the time, there is no bottom to this fund and it will perpetually decay/decline. And it's not so much rigged (not so sure about VIX futures however), but it's mathematically flawed in that it follows futures, which usually have a premium that decays (or converges) till the future contract meets spot every month. And yes, the market may be topping, but if this top takes several weeks, with contango above 10%, this thing can and will decay significantly.
The daily ratios change as fear and option activity changes, that is the dynamic that you shorts have not experienced from UVXY inception. The direction has changed and this is the type of instrument that technicals are actually the best method.
There is no earnings and market cap valuation to base your position on.
Come back in february and let me teach you why UVXY doubled.