VIX was down 9.7% and UVXY only fell by 10.2%
After the gains on Wednesday...you may be on to something.
The thing that really bothers me is the fact that this thing NEVER recovers ground when analyzed over a 3 month or 6 month time frame.
How can that be?
This tracks the VIX futures and not the VIX spot
VIX spot fell 9.7% but not the VIX futures by that much. That saved UVXY a bit today.
But next 8 trading days when VIX front month futures coincide to spot, due to the huge contango, UVXY should crash 20% on contango alone in the next 8 trading days!
Unless VIX spikes a lot in the next 8 trading days, UVXY will crash HARD
If VIX goes down from 13 today, then UVXY will crash even HARDER
If VIX goes up a bit, UVXY may save a bit of face but still close lower
Only thing that may save UVXY is a catastrophe that makes VIX spike a lot ... (if you suspect this happens, buy some VIX calls like I did)
Note year low was hit a few days ago at $10.10 and Dow and S&P were much lower than today. Yet today the market hit new multi-year high and UVXY not only didn't break the $10.10 low but actually bounced up at the close and into the after hours.