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Dorchester Minerals LP Message Board

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  • JAVELIN2625 JAVELIN2625 Dec 9, 2005 10:28 AM Flag


    Yes, fair enough. This is in the Greenspan world.

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    • The only really big seller is LU pension plan. Without their supply, I think we would be over $30.
      Your calculations are based on $10 NG. We haven't seen that price in over 3 months!! I expect our payout to reach over $.85 next month. That will finally get the stock moving..
      Finally, it's good to see that you are still interested enough to post once in a while. Over the years, I've really enjoyed your comments. With DMLP being so dull, it's easy to lose interest in it's daily movements.

      • 1 Reply to littlericoboy
      • I am still vitally interested in DMLP. A very high proportion of my IRA is in DMLP. Unlike Bob Brinker, I am not a fan of 4% asset allocation in one position. That way, one runs their own mutual fund of 25 issues-they might just as well have an index fund - and that indeed is what Brinker has been recommending for some time. In my opinion, it is better to truly understand a very few issues and watch them very carefully. DMLP is just such a good issue.
        With regard to the February and May distributions, as you have pointed out, they will be quite large. My $2.80 annual distribution estimate is for a "typical" year without a Katrina or Rita to affect gulf gas production.And prior to LNG having a negative pricing effect on domestic gas. I suspect within 3 to 5 years, LNG will be distorting the domestic market in a negative direction. Until then, we are riding a thoroughbred.
        The irritating thing to me about the current DMLP price is as follows:
        Using the McDep near term analysis distribution of $3.20 annual and $27 as of Friday, the yield is 11.9%, Even using a $2.80 annual on a typical non-storm year, the yield is 10.4%. With a 12 year reserve, where in the world can someone get even 8% or 9% without undue risk? Since the Fed is going to raise the short term interest rate probably to 5%, it wouldn't be unreasonable to expect DMLP to yield 8% or worst case 9%.
        On the other side of publically traded partnerships (REITs), many are yielding only 5%. The risk in my opinion is very high with REITs.
        One final point, since the 11/3 distribution, in 24 trading days the average daily volume has been about 24K. When LU pension is selling, the volume averages less than 4K daily. There is a lot of retail selling, probably by those who are worried by the LU selling. Since LU pension probably paid $2 or $3 for their position years ago, they have a good gain and don't want to risk the gain. DMLP is not a GOOG. It is an income play with limited capital gain potential.
        That is enough ranting for a Sunday. Good luck to all who believe in holding DMLP over the next 3 to 5 years.

30.82-0.17(-0.55%)10:28 AMEDT

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