>>Get this: out of the 8k or so orthos trained and certified to sell the Invisalign system, 4,500 have dropped out completely and now have nothing to do with it.<<
There were 4900 GP's submitting cases Q3. But in any case it is true that only about half of GPs trained actually submit cases. Same with orthos. Why is that so surprising? The training only takes a day or two, and some may do it for continuing education. Some may find the treatment planning too difficult to carry out or not fit into their practices.
I'm not sure that the fact that only half follow up with their training is particularly shocking or damning for the product. Actually the fact that about 1/3 of all orthos in North America submitted one or more cases last quarter is pretty impressive when you think about how new the method is.
... in my humble opinion, Invisalign has a long Ortho path (and will need the category firm endorsement and support) to create the necessary volume to be considered a real player in this market (I am talking in something around 500.000 cases/year WW which is far from today's records). Trying to find a shortcut, the company irritated the ortho comunity before the concept was stablished. Dont take me wrong... this is a great product. My doubt, since the beginning, was if Align could take it alone. Soon we will know.
You are 100% right that I am thinking linearly. I analyze that which I can see with my own eyes. If you hold ALGN as an option on a market that *might* come to fruition, then I sincerely wish you luck.
My problem with this pie-in-the-sky analysis is that the people "on the street" (i.e., those actually selling the product--orthos and GPs) are telling me the same thing: Invisalign is a tough product to sell. Instead of being some revolutionary product that is changing the world of malocclusion, it's a neat niche product that has neared its saturation point.
There is competition out there for ALGN, and more is on the way. So, yes, I analyze what I can see. I never owned a dot-com stock based on "future projections." Don't take management's word--ever! Do your own legwork.
The PRESENT isn't as attractive as ALGN management would have you believe, and the FUTURE isn't as attractive as they want you to believe (based on the opinios of those actually selling and utilizing the product).
Best of luck to you.
My intention is not to bash--not you or the stock. Yes, I'm short the stock. I've been short for about six months.
Please convince me with rational arguments that the stock has bottomed and will head up. I will cover in an instant.
And I'm not claiming that traditional braces are better or more preferable in any way. Let's just be realistic about ALGN's product. The company itself claims that it has a market opportunity of 800k case starts per year. This is completely incorrect. The company arrived at this figure by backing out of the 2 million or so case starts per year in the US the number of cases that involve Classes II and III (i.e., not right for Invisalign) and children. The result is around 800k. Numerous orthos have stated that Invisalign is right for only less than half of their Class I, non-child cases. This reduces the 800k to around 400k.
For the company to go after this entire 400k market, they would have to have most (if not all) of the country's orthos onboard. The problem is that orthos are dropping out at a very fast rate.
The company is very close to reaching a point of saturation. The market was never as big and attractive as the company would have you believe. Make a few phone calls. Don't take my word for it.
Lastly, as for your opinion of "wanting something for nothing," I don't think that the GP who posted here is looking for that. He is simply making an intelligent business decision. He is analyzing how he can make the most money given his limited resources. He determined that Invisalign isn't the way to do that.
Why do you believe that the company can't sell to both orthos and GPs (beyond the issue of professional jealosy)? Aside from the simplest of cases, GPs really aren't trained in the area of orthodontic care.
... both of you guys are 1/2 right, 1/2 wrong. In my opinion Invisalign could never be offered to GPs unless the company consider it the main channel. It is impossible to be a Lady and a whore at the same time and that is what this company is trying to be. Although several GPs do a lot of traditional ortho, I still believe they are not prepared to deal with complexes cases which is perfectly possible to treat with Invisalign. But, again, this has not to do with the ridiculous drop in the stock price. In fact, this is another discussion...
Though you are an angry person hardly worthy of a reply, you couldn't be more wrong in your accusations.
Here we have a general practitioner dentist posting useful information, and you bash the guy like that? Get a clue!
The guy is a GP who is in business to make money. He wrote that he can't make nearly as much with Invisalign as he can with various restorative techniques. If you could make $1,000 for three hours' work or $500 for eight hours' work, which would you choose? (The numbers aren't exact--just an analogy.)
Grow up, and learn to take an opinion--even if it may not be aligned (no pun intended) with your own.