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Jabil Circuit Inc. Message Board

  • yahoo yahoo May 11, 2005 9:35 PM Flag

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    • If I recall correctly Estimates are as high as
      1.65 for FY00.
      This does not include revenues which
      are pushed next Q cause
      of design delays.
      This
      did not count GET deal.
      This does not count major
      Telecom Xmas present to come.

      As discussed in some
      previous posts from SI board,
      An EPS of 2.00 for FY 00
      is possible. 40 * 2.00 = 80 JBL should be at this
      point sometime during FY00 (Before Sep 00) and
      3.00
      EPS for FY 01 IMO is very possible Giving JBL 3.00*40
      = 120
      by FY 01. JBL IMO will be at 100 sometime
      next year.

      Short term with 1.65 EPS for FY 00
      very good business outlook
      40*1.65 around 65 is
      where i epxect JBL will face short term cap. This
      number is also consistent with historic relative
      valuations of players in the ECMs. same as where FLEX

      is. And fair compared to SLR at 75.

      IMO
      depending on market conditions somewhere between 55 and 65

      we will face resistance after earnings. To pullback
      to 48-55
      level and close the year at around
      70.

      History is repeating itself. Steve you and me we
      underestimated
      JBL last year, thinking that JBL will be at 50-55 by
      end of
      the year. Not now I know JBL better
      now.

      Good Luck all.

    • And I tend to agree with you very strongly that
      barring guidance that would support upward earnings
      revisions, the upside is becoming more limited. Keep in mind
      that back in June, manyu of the firms that follow JBL
      indicated that 48 was a fair price range for the stock. So
      even if we all know that sooner or later upward
      revisions will be justified, until the company says the
      right words, it may well be that we'll bump up against
      old highs only to retrench to our current level.
      That's why, as I said before, I have my finger on the
      trigger once we pass 48. In fact, if you look at the
      distribution-accumulation balance, JBL is still being accumulated, but at
      lower levels as higher prices bring out profit taking.
      I see no immediate sell indicators - in fact the
      T/A is looking good - barring volume (and I'd like a
      million share day with a smaller move up, myself, like
      Anand) - which is why I think we could hit the former
      high, but I am being very cautious, and will take the
      risk of leaving money on the table rather than let my
      options profits disappear.

      Great post.

      SH

    • I'd like to add my thanks to all the
      posters
      out there who are generously helping newbies
      like
      Roadrunner and myself. I'm sure I am not
      the only newbie
      lurking in the shadows soaking
      up all your great
      advice.

      Thanks again...

    • looks like sep50s were good buy @ 7/8

    • Here we are a week before earnings and JBL is at
      49. Stock is trading at 33X's current consensus of
      1.45 for FY '00. If we believe that will remain the
      consensus then upside is limited short term (IMHO) because
      the street would see JBL as fairly priced. If we get
      guidance that leads to higher expectations then we have
      good chance to meet and exceed old high. My
      expectation is for JBL to meet the current estimate of .30
      for the Q--nothing more. I also expect they will
      announce the GET deal is closed or very near closing and
      that they see the aquisition as being slightly
      accretive over the 1st half of next year and adding
      significantly later next year and into '01 and beyond. I hope
      they say something like it will double our revenue
      within 18 months, but knowing JBL's consevative nature I
      don't expect it. I expect they will report all lines of
      business are strong and look stronger going forward,
      especially the communications area. The delay issues are
      resolved, but it's possible it cost them a little more than
      they anticipated for the Q. However, the first Q of
      '00 will be stronger than previous guidance as these
      new programs are in full gear. They will report on
      the new warranty facilities as an important addition
      as it positions them very competitively for new
      business. New contracts and/or aquisitions are at a fever
      pitch and we may hear about some or be told we will
      hear very soon. (This is why I think they bumped
      earnings announcement to SEPT from OCT--gives them ample
      time before next earnings to make announcements.} If
      I'm right about this, I think it gives ample
      ammunition to analysts to raise forecasts for next year to
      around a consensus of around 1.55 to 1.60 which, in
      turn, and during decent market periods, can get us a 35
      to 40 multiple or $50 to $65 on the stock between
      now and next earnings. Of course all just my opinion.

    • I did take it the wrong way. I understand what your doing now. I've gotten the cone on DELL and missed the ice cream. I understand where your coming from. Thanks again.

    • I'm rocking and rolling with T.Rowe Price Sci/Tech too, try the Dreyfus Tech if you really wanna move. C ya

    • You say you sell when it gets near the high,
      that's a plus for me to know because I would like to
      take the money now and run but I'm holding on because
      of future highs being discussed<<

      Yes
      and no....
      If you reread my post, I said I have LT
      shares in this company and you can't pry them 'from the
      cold hands of my corpse'. I sell "trading shares" near
      the highs (missed it last qtr though. I got greedy
      anticipating a great post earnings run up and JBL kicked my
      good for it). These shares only represent 20% of my
      holdings. It's very difficult to time this stock...and not
      very wise either. You may end up with the cone and
      miss the ice cream.

      It sounds like you want a
      short term run and then out. BE CAREFUL. I'm sure there
      are more than a few of us that have tried this and
      are sitting on issues much longer than we had
      anticipated due to unforseen surprises. You can get in big
      trouble very fast doing that. Look into some good
      longterm growth issues just in case you end up having to
      'stay awhile'.

    • Go slow. 2 years is pretty ambitious. Learn the
      trade before jumping in with everything you have.


      Markets are very volatile right now and will probably be
      until at least after the interest rate question is
      answered. Be careful.

    • Thanks for the info., you really want to keep me
      busy. That's wonderful, I will check all of the above
      out. I hope I can have some success sooner that you
      did because I want to enjoy my success while I'm
      still walking. I saw too many people waiting for
      retirement to come, only to be to sick or not enough money
      to enjoy it so I vowed to do my homework, which you
      have given me plenty of , and aim for a goal of enough
      wealth to stay home within 2 yrs. and enjoy life.
      Anthony Robbins had something to do with setting this
      goal. I think if you set your mind to something, it
      will come, if I fail, I will try again. What is your
      input as to when to sell, Is 10 - 10 % above your
      investment a reasonable amt. to sell and rebuy when it
      becomes lower? That's the biggest ? of all that I have.
      I'm on my way to the library, Ta - Ta and Thanks a
      Million. Any more advise, I'm ready to listen

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JBL
18.72-0.68(-3.51%)3:28 PMEST