Jabil Circuit Inc. Message Board

"Rabid Rat" bounce for JBL in the morning or a
few days, followed by testing of lows of
today.

Top of today will be the first resistance
point.
low before the crash (25) will be next one.
27
next and Big resistance at 40.

IMVHO JBL is a
good short candidate just below every resistance
points.

First being 22-.

However a
prudent approach is to wait and see JBL action Tommorow.
And decide accoordingly.

JBL down 7 FLEX down
5. FLEX is sure more undervalued than JBL now.


A good sector startegy will be to short JBL and
long FLEX for next 6 months or so.
Next Q listening
to CC i dont think anything real positive will
happen on JBL front. So no risk on JBL short for six
month time frame.

FLEX should be closer to SLR.

I bought FLEX today at 23. With stop loss at 21
1/2.

After the FLEX results if FLEX performs.
If I do not
get stopped out on FLEX.

After FLEX results
if FLEX ok I will have long FLEX short JBL
position.

Missing earnings is a NO-NO not for nothing good
management pre-announce.
Worse is letting a few know and
kill the rest.

In 98 Mar when they just said
revenue booking delayed. They were killed from 40 before
earnings (which was down from 97 price of 72)
to a
price of 30 for whole of the year. Underprorming Nasdaq
for whole year.

Starting from 40 in Mar 98 JBL
went to 23 in Sept and the only reason they recovered
to 70 by end of year was because they proved what
they said about revenues was correct. No real harm was
done to eranings.

Situation is much worse now.
Real harm done to earnings and management credibility.

Damages like these take a long time to recover and
Rightly so.

If you want a low PE stock in ECM ACTM
is a good candidate. If you want a good stock SLR is
one.

The worst mistake we can do at this point is to get
fooled into beleiving our False dream of ECMs are immune
and JBL management is great.

Both of these
assumptions have been proved wrong conclusively by JBL's
result.

Till the point there is proof positive that JBL has
recovered earnings future, there is no future for JBL
stock.

The best case scneario is Mar result they
dont screw up more, June they perform the super
guidance, (which is based on new prod rampups etc.), Sept
they repeat great performance.

Only after that
Street may give them some of the credibility back.


And after the Dec quarter, with all the big pile of
good earnings assuptions, they may come close to PEG
of 1.

Which assuming a growth of 40% YOY for
2002 will be around 1.40*40 = 56$.

However The
memories of missing numbers, will be there for a long
time. JBL deserves to and IMHO will trade at a good
discount from the good companies of the sector like SLR
and if good result FLEX.

The best case 50-60$
by End of Dec or earnly next year.

While if
that happens the whole tech sector would be flying big
time. Giving SLR probably a price of 90-100$ and CSCO
80+.

The best case JBL will probably give the same return
as SLR and CSCO of the world from this point. In
average case JBL will keep on underperforming market for
a few quarters atleast.

Surely a time to
sell all of JBL or if not that most of it and go for
other players.

I did not learn how to short
cause i kept on beleving in false reaffirmations of
earnings by JBL while they were telling there preferred
stock holders go ahead sell and short.

Now I
will learn to short cause of JBL.
I will be
watching closely for every shrting opportunity In JBL near
future.

If you want to invest in ECM future invest in SLR
maybe FLEX, SANM, CLS. Why would you want to buy a
company that has proved to be the weak one in challanging
time compared to peers and that has slapped you in
your face and robbed you by selective leaking of
news.

Good Luck all.

.....Down in the morning.....followed by a strong rally in the afternoon..... FINAL CAPITULATION IS HERE......