Is it that so many customers in the NY/NJ area got slammed by Sandy?
VLY's problems go back almost 10 years. The problem is the profits.
In 2004 earnings per share were $1.06 (adjusted for splits). Profits declined slowly over the next few years to EPS of a dollar in 2007.
Then we had the real estate collapse in 2008. VLY also had a big investment in Fannie Mae stock. EPS were 58 cents.
EPS were 58 cents again in 2009, 73 cents in 2010, and 75 cents in 2011.
We'll have the 2012 numbers soon - the analyst estimate is for 74 cents, and the estimate for 2013 is a little lower. The dividend is just barely covered and is certainly not secure.
What's the problem with the profits? Of course there have been external factors but IMHO the problem now is king gerry.