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Newcastle Investment Corp. Message Board

  • exdivy exdivy Feb 27, 2008 6:57 AM Flag

    Another reason to like NCT

    I see no reason to be worried about today's CC. A few days ago I read a PR from ACAS stating they wanted to get into REIT-type financing. That suggests NCT is in a good sector, as interest rates continue to drop.

    I really think this CC could be terrific. I am, of course, expecting more mark2market write downs; however, if the CC is just as positive as it was last quarter (or even more so), this stock should take off. I am wanting to hear two things:

    1. The current investment environment stands to be very profitable for NCT.

    2. The dividend will remain stable at $.72 or be increased to $.75.

    BTW, I wanted to extend my thanks to yieldplay for all of the expert analyses, and the rest of the posters on this board who post intelligent commentary.

    GLTA

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    • That's true, but because the CDOs are in default, the holders of the CDO debt now have cure rights. Among those rights are the right to liquidate the assets.

      AFN's saving grace, ironically, is that there's practically nothing left to pursue. The CDOs are non-recourse to AFN and the assets themselves are as good as a fart in the wind (sorry, couldn't resist), so I don't know of any reason why the holders would pursue any claims at all - but under the default provisions they certainly have the right to do so.

      That would not be good for AFN...

    • ex-divy, thanks for the kind words. I was out of the country for a while and not thinking too much about this or posting on the boards. I must say, it was refreshing to get away from all the bad news for a bit! I still think NCT is a solid value here, unless the Fed runs out of money...with the dividend cut AHR, NRF, etc. obviously look a little better in the short term.

      • 1 Reply to yieldplay
      • Like your name, yieldplay, I've gone after yield, too, but I got burned. I've taken losses in NCT and have another sizeable loss unrealized so far, but I plan to hold my remaining shares. I've diversified into a number of MREITS so the shares I sold in NCT a few weeks ago I bought into RAS with a higher current yield and it went up as they maintained their projected payout. You might want to consider swapping MREITS with similar risk profiles, taking the losses which will offset the div income you get for tax purposes. I still think many of the MREITS are good long term bets. Bought more AFN yesterday with a yield north of 30%. Their negative book value will be reversed with a change in accounting rules coming. See their message board for the explanation of what happened.

 
NCT
5.22-0.07(-1.32%)May 22 4:02 PMEDT