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China Carbon Graphite Group, Inc. Message Board

  • helpme_hanna helpme_hanna Oct 10, 2011 3:44 PM Flag

    my projections for 2012 and 2013

    2012:
    Sales:
    Non-nuclear 45,000 tons @ $3000 per ton = $135,000,000
    Nuclear 2000 tons @ $15,000 per ton = $30,000,000

    Net earnings:
    Non-nuclear. (net margin 15%) $20,250,000 = $.68 per share @ 30m shs.
    Nuclear. (net margin 35%) $10,500,000 = $.35 per share @ 30m shs.

    Total net earnings per share = $1.03

    2013:
    Sales:
    Non-nuclear 60,000 tons @ $3000 per ton = $180,000,000
    Nuclear 4000 tons @ $15,000 per ton = $60,000,000

    Net earnings:
    Non-nuclear (net margin 15%) $27,000,000 = $.90 per share @ 30m shs.
    Nuclear (net margin 35%) $21,000,000 = $.70 per share @ 30m shs.

    Total net earnings per share = $1.60.

    Notes:

    1. Assumes 100% capacity on older facilities and 50% capacity on newer facilities for non-nuclear in 2012. 100% capacity on all non-nuclear in 2013.

    2. Revenue per ton on non-nuclear is a guesstimate based on current revenue and the tonnage figures given in the power point presentation. I believe my assumption of $3000 per ton is very conservative.

    3. Revenue per ton for nuclear is the low end of what is given in the power point presentation.

    4. Net margin for non-nuclear is based on comments and figures in the power point presentation.

    5. Power point presentation says around 50% gross margin for nuclear. I use 35% net margin.

    6. If, as expected, CHGI buys a graphite mine, the above margins should significantly increase.

    7. Some commentators think that the price of graphite will skyrocket. Nevertheless, I assume no year over year increases in the price of graphite.

    8. I assume 30,000,000 shares even though there are currently only about 23,000,000 fully diluted share--and despite the fact that CHGI indicates it can fund all future operations without dilution.

    So helpme_hanna

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