Here is my thesis: management will do what it says it will do.
By the end of year 2006, $3 dividend. By the end of year 2007, $4 dividend. By the end of year 2008, $5. Dividend. I think these objectives are doable and perhaps conservative.
I do not know what kind of multiple I will get in 2006, 2007 or 2008. However, if I am getting over $5 in dividends by then, I will take my chances. I would predict that the stock will double by that time.
If management does not deliver or misleads me, I will sell. I believe the end game for many of these MLP/Gps will be to be acquired and it would not surprise me if XTXI/XTEX or CPNO were acquired.
For what its worth, I own XTXI, CPNO and ETP.
Are you the same guy who used to post as geo_investor?