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Crosstex Energy, AŞ Message Board

  • rrb1981 rrb1981 Apr 17, 2006 11:24 AM Flag

    Roller Coaster

    Surprise. Gee another Monday and down over $1.00 within a few hours of open, who would have guessed it.

    I cannot make any sense of this increased volatility. Increased volume is understandable due to Yorktown distributions, but why all of this up $1.00 down $1.00 repeatedly? Makes no sense to see it move so sporadically.

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    • XTXI is volatile, but the short term trend is down. Looks to me like a negative revaluation along with the rest of the GPs. XTXI is selling for 20X its estimated end of '07 $3.60 dividend, at which point it would yield 5% (3.60 / 73 = 5%). That looks like a good buy. Problem is that MGG, NRGP, and ETE are just as cheap, with 3 more GP's coming public in the next few months.

      I am using this weakness in the sector as a buying opportunity, but I don't expect the selling pressure to end any time soon. Just keep buying and don't worry about it. If we own GPs yielding 5% as of Christmas 2007 that will not be the end of the world.

      Focus on the underlying business and let the stock price take care of itself.

      Good luck.

      • 1 Reply to mlpfollower
      • Good post.

        I still get the impression some of the traders and people invested in the GP's don't truly understand the limited partner setup etc. I agree that as long as the fundamental business stay on track the growth in dividends/distributions will continue and we'll all be glad we bought low.

        I assume you're referring to the GP IPO's of APL, VLI, & ARLP. Seems like ARLP's potential GP IPO has been hanging over its head for a while. The way APL's been acting, I'd say something similar there. Depending on valuations when they IPO I'd have to say I'd be interested in all three. Citi says some good things about ARLP and it looks like their GP could be a good long term investment. Nothing wrong with a little coal to mix up the ol MLP stocking.

        VLI's GP could come out fairly cheap and then look pretty good once they turn things around there a little. I'd need to read a little analysis before I dove into APL's GP. Been hard for me to figure out why one of the stronger growing MLP's trades at such a high yield. It has to be more than commodity exposure...

        As far as existing GP's go, MGG has been the biggest loser lately so I've been buying there. Felt like ETE should have been going up given all the good news at ETP, so have been buying it too. If XTXI gets sub 70 it's going back on the buy list.

        Just my thoughts on GP land...