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Crosstex Energy, AŞ Message Board

  • kingedxxxxx kingedxxxxx Feb 11, 2010 3:50 PM Flag

    Management is lighting the fuse!

    It looks like management has hinted a couple of times now about future guidance being strong.

    As I try to interpret the latest release, I have come to the conclusion that there will likely not be any more press until earnings on 3/1. This means no preannouncement of reinstatement of distribution.

    I fully expect that with announcement of earnings, management will reinstate distribution starting with Q1 earnings which means that XTEX shareholders will see a decent distribution around May time frame. This distribution is likely to be a minimum of .18, but may be as much as .30. I am actually leaning towards a higher number based on some numbers be thrown around out there. Thus, I now expect .25-.30 for a start. This will move XTEX into the $16-20 range. This will also move XTXI up, but it will continue to lag somewhat. Here we should see $13-16.

    Based on uncertainty with economic recovery and potential depressed NG pricing over summer (not as severe as 2009), we will likely not hit these price targets until end of this year.

    Crosstex stockholders are playing a wait-and-see regarding distribution. First, they want to know what it will be. Next, they will want to actually receive this distribution. Last, they will want to see some stability and proof that Crosstex can achieve the numbers from their guidance. This is what it is going to take to get us to the price levels mentioned which is part of reason that it will be end-of-year before we get to the targeted range.

    However, without a market downturn, XTEX and XTXI will drift upward in anticipation of 3/1.

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    • My expectation is that they will declare a quarterly distribution of $0.20 to $0.21 for XTEX and a dividend of $0.09 to $0.10 for XTXI to be payable after the end of the first quarter of 2010. It's more of a gut feel than anything concrete since I am not sure exactly how the covenants for the new debt restructuring and additional shares are worded.

      Guess we'll see on Monday.