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ArcelorMittal Message Board

  • jmj2400 jmj2400 Jul 3, 2006 3:23 PM Flag

    Bargain

    I expect big things from Mittal Steel and I think we will all be very happy in the short term as well as the long-term. 10% of the steel market is huge and lets not forget what Mittal was predicting for earnings before the merger. This stock is a bargain. Buy as many shares as you can get.

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    • the 3.6 to 3.8 is for the second half alone.it is operating inclome not net,so have to deduct taxes and minority interest.If you take the first half into acount,you will end up with high 5s in eps.As for the 7 dollars that is an 07 estimate accounting for 1.6 in synergies and improved earnings from MT.

    • MT is an underprice stock so far. Low P/B, P/S and EPS is a huge target. Soon we will see a spike of $35-40 by next Monday. My software is still blinking on MT. Tomorrow Wed. I will buy TONS once the market opens.

    • Thanks TC for a very good analysis! Based on this MT prices should go up. However, investors may want the dust to settle and wait for the Q2 results to get a clearer picture. I bought some at $30.2 yesterday.

    • "However, the MT guidance for 2006 is for the operating income between $3.6-3.8 bn."

      No, that is guidance for the second half alone!

      < 2006 Guidance

      For the full year, Mittal Steel is expecting EBITDA[1] to reach approximately $7.3 bn, compared with $5.8 bn in 2005. Operating income is expected to be $6.1 bn, compared with $4.7 bn in 2005. Shipments for 2006 are expected to be approximately 60 million tonnes.

      For the second half of 2006, Mittal Steel is expecting EBITDA to be between $4.2-4.4 bn and operating income to be between $3.6-3.8 bn. >

      http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/060613/uktu002.html?.v=65

    • not much of a risk when a 43 dollar stock is selling for 30.

    • I still see some risks ahead...

      This deal was not handled well at all.

      What if not enough Arcelor shareholders tender despite Arcelor management's recommendation for the deal.

      Arcelor shareholders voted against Severstal because they didnt like management deliberately tying their hands, but at the same time, by no means we can assume that now Arcelor management is for the Mittal deal, arcelor shareholders will tender to get over 50%.

      Through out this deal, its been obvious to many that Mittal's may be very desperate to seal Arcelor deal, and their actions to date have fed into that thinking, so unfortuately, I am sure many Arcelor shareholders are now thinking, what if we hold our for more not go for tender offer, they may assume that if Mittal does not get his 50%, then he will have to keep raising the bid until he does.

      Its sad that significant damage has been done to minority shareholders, as they failed into account market perceptions , market knows now the desperation of Mittals to aquire controlliong interest in Arcelor, their willingness to go to any lengths undermines their position. If they had held firm and threatened to pull out, it sends a clear message to Arcelor shareholders to accept the premium or see their share price fall.

 
MT
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