It will get to test $8...unfortunately. Maybe with some corrections on the way but it will get there this year.
The steel glut is growing as Chine's housing construction has practically stopped. They have nothing to do with the excess capacity and they sell it at dirt cheap prices.
I can't see how MT recovers in this environment...for now it's a strong sell.
I hate to agree with you because I'm long, but one only has to look at the demise of the shippers and far they have fallen on bad times to understand that steel producers are practically in the same boat. I was amazed to see that in October 2001, MT stock was .84 cents. Wow. I say Wow for 2 reasons. First it went on to be a $100 stock. What an absolutely incredible wealth builder that was for longs. Second, I say Wow because, it makes me think that MT could actually revisit that low price. I hope not, but as far now, I have stopped averaging down and am now buying put protection.